--- title: "Dark Matter Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dark Matter Case ($132.07) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 79.64% over 1,809 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Dark Matter Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Dark Matter Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=all) Price · $132.07 · 203 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $118.85 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.64% · 1,809 openings, odds method Variance · 24.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 230 openings · below min 7 days · 81.08% ±23.58 1,695 openings 30 days · 79.64% ±22.83 1,809 openings since tracking started · 79.64% ±22.83 1,809 openings 12.0% 76.8% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=24h) | 230 | 76.88% ±64.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=7d) | 1,695 | 81.08% ±23.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case) | 1,809 | 79.64% ±22.8 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dark-matter-case?window=all) | 1,809 | 79.64% ±22.8 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,859 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $6,793 10,450 gems | 28.6% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $5,575 8,577 gems | 23.5% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,819 2,799 gems | 7.7% | 12 | 9.3 | 1.29× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,495 2,300 gems | 6.3% | 6 | 9.3 | 0.65× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,246 1,916 gems | 5.2% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,143 1,758 gems | 4.8% | 15 | 9.3 | 1.61× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $863 1,327 gems | 3.6% | 13 | 9.3 | 1.40× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $800 1,231 gems | 3.4% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $651 1,001 gems | 2.7% | 13 | 9.3 | 1.40× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $611 940 gems | 2.6% | 5 | 9.3 | 0.54× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $527 810 gems | 2.2% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $414 636 gems | 1.7% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $332 510 gems | 1.4% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.18× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $223 344 gems | 0.9% | 12 | 9.3 | 1.29× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $90.18 139 gems | 0.4% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 92.5% | $6.44 9.9 gems | 5.0% | 1,714 | 1719.6 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-11 14:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [SkyScar](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SkyScar) $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-10 00:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-09 22:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-09 02:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-07 19:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-06 20:59 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $5,575 8,577 gems 42.22x 2026-11-10 02:03 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [SkyScar](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SkyScar) $132 203 gems $5,575 8,577 gems 42.22x 2026-11-10 01:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $5,575 8,577 gems 42.22x 2026-11-09 20:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=dark-matter-case) [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $132 203 gems $6,793 10,450 gems 51.43x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $132 203 gems $6.44 9.9 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $132 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% legendary 1.5% Classified 92.5% best hit $6,793 (51.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt