--- title: "Death Wish case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Death Wish ($28.65) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.28% over 3,596 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish rendered: 2026-11-11T17:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Death Wish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Death Wish A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=all) Price · $28.65 · 44.07 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.78 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.28% · 3,596 openings, odds method Variance · 23.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 124 openings · below min 7 days · 82.94% ±18.32 2,731 openings 30 days · 85.28% ±15.97 3,596 openings since tracking started · 85.28% ±15.97 3,596 openings 31.5% 118.2% 205.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=24h) | 124 | 118.26% ±86.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=7d) | 2,731 | 82.94% ±18.3 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish) | 3,596 | 85.28% ±16.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/death-wish?window=all) | 3,596 | 85.28% ±16.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,621 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $1,855 2,854 gems | 36.0% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $451 694 gems | 21.0% | 48 | 43.5 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $91.00 140 gems | 11.6% | 118 | 119.5 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $70.82 109 gems | 13.7% | 201 | 181.0 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $26.59 40.91 gems | 8.3% | 282 | 289.7 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $17.51 26.94 gems | 5.4% | 276 | 289.7 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.58 5.5 gems | 1.1% | 281 | 289.7 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 18.0% | $1.90 2.93 gems | 1.3% | 671 | 651.8 | 1.03× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 18.0% | $1.29 1.98 gems | 0.9% | 622 | 651.8 | 0.95× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.53 0.82 gems | 0.6% | 1,107 | 1086.3 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-08 11:01 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-06 18:25 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-06 15:16 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-05 20:17 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-05 20:13 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-05 15:45 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-05 08:10 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-04 22:55 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-04 22:47 UTC [Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1,855 2,854 gems 64.76x 2026-11-04 20:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=death-wish) [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1.90 2.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) [YRKV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/YRKV) $28.65 44.07 gems $1.90 2.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $70.82 109 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [YRKV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/YRKV) $28.65 44.07 gems $3.58 5.5 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $451 694 gems 15.74x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [YRKV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/YRKV) $28.65 44.07 gems $70.82 109 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $3.58 5.5 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $1.90 2.93 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $70.82 109 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $28.65 44.07 gems $70.82 109 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 06:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.65 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.5% covert 4.5% pink 5.0% #8847ff 8.0% classified 8.0% Mythical 8.0% #4b69ff 18.0% restricted 18.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $1,855 (64.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt