--- title: "Deception case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Deception ($20.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 86.84% over 2,058 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Deception](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Deception A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=all) Price · $20.31 · 31.25 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $18.28 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.84% · 2,058 openings, odds method Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 130.52% ±40.15 227 openings 7 days · 85.62% ±14.43 1,756 openings 30 days · 86.84% ±13.33 2,058 openings since tracking started · 86.84% ±13.33 2,058 openings 70.5% 121.0% 171.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=24h) | 227 | 130.52% ±40.1 | +2.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=7d) | 1,756 | 85.62% ±14.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception) | 2,058 | 86.84% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deception?window=all) | 2,058 | 86.84% ±13.3 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,080 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $633 974 gems | 17.3% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $321 493 gems | 17.5% | 20 | 20.8 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| DickStacy (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dickstacy-gold-berlin-2019) | 1 in 50 | $190 293 gems | 20.8% | 54 | 41.6 | 1.30× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $104 160 gems | 14.2% | 41 | 52.0 | 0.79× | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $69.14 106 gems | 11.3% | 55 | 62.4 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.25 65 gems | 11.6% | 91 | 104.0 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $9.14 14.06 gems | 2.5% | 98 | 104.0 | 0.94× | | [Dual Berettas \| Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) | 40.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 3.4% | 861 | 832.0 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 41.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 1.3% | 852 | 852.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Stoepsel123](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Stoepsel123) $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-10 18:39 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-07 22:46 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-07 01:35 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [kick.com/snupster](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Fsnupster) $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-05 19:00 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-05 10:14 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-03 19:51 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $633 974 gems 31.16x 2026-11-03 09:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=deception) [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $9.14 14.06 gems 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $20.31 31.25 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Dual Berettas | Retribution (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $1.55 2.38 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $20.31 31.25 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.31 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.5% extraordinary 3.0% Ancient 2.5% mil spec 3.0% classified 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 40.0% blue 41.0% best hit $633 (31.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt