--- title: "Decoder case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Decoder ($220.37) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 82.77% over 181 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Decoder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Decoder A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=all) Price · $220.37 · 339 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $198.33 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.77% · 181 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 91.11% ±26.12 140 openings 30 days · 82.77% ±22.98 181 openings since tracking started · 82.77% ±22.98 181 openings 59.0% 145.3% 231.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=24h) | 15 | 151.11% ±79.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=7d) | 140 | 91.11% ±26.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder) | 181 | 82.77% ±23.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/decoder?window=all) | 181 | 82.77% ±23.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1,003 1,543 gems | 50.6% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.10× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $740 1,138 gems | 37.3% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $247 380 gems | 8.7% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $109 168 gems | 1.7% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.37 80.57 gems | 0.5% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $38.08 58.58 gems | 0.6% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.51 10.02 gems | 0.3% | 12 | 18.1 | 0.66× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) | 13.0% | $2.88 4.43 gems | 0.2% | 25 | 23.5 | 1.06× | | [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.83 1.28 gems | 0.1% | 32 | 25.3 | 1.26× | | [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 0.0% | 27 | 25.3 | 1.07× | | [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 14.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.0% | 28 | 25.3 | 1.10× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 14:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 14:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 14:04 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 17:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 17:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 13:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 13:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-08 13:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-07 23:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-07 23:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=decoder) [StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $220 339 gems $2.88 4.43 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $740 1,138 gems 3.36x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) [Bottavious](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bottavious) $220 339 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [PP-Bizon | Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) Hidden $220 339 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-factory-new) Hidden $220 339 gems $2.88 4.43 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) [Bottavious](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bottavious) $220 339 gems $0.83 1.28 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 14:09 UTC [UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) Hidden $220 339 gems $0.83 1.28 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:09 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $220 339 gems $247 380 gems 1.12x 2026-11-10 14:09 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $220 339 gems $1,003 1,543 gems 4.55x 2026-11-10 14:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $220 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.0% Classified 2.0% Restricted 10.0% restricted 27.0% violet 14.0% #8847ff 14.0% best hit $1,003 (4.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt