--- title: "Demonic case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Demonic ($123.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 97.47% over 853 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Demonic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Demonic A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=all) Price · $123.27 · 190 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $110.94 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.47% · 853 openings, odds method Variance · 21.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 174 openings · below min 7 days · 92.24% ±32.49 779 openings 30 days · 97.47% ±31.05 853 openings since tracking started · 97.47% ±31.05 853 openings 32.0% 101.3% 170.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=24h) | 174 | 101.30% ±68.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=7d) | 779 | 92.24% ±32.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic) | 853 | 97.47% ±31.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/demonic?window=all) | 853 | 97.47% ±31.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 904 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4,077 6,272 gems | 73.5% | 19 | 18.1 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $364 560 gems | 9.8% | 22 | 27.1 | 0.81× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $125 193 gems | 5.6% | 57 | 45.2 | 1.26× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $53.51 82.33 gems | 4.8% | 100 | 90.4 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 20.0% | $21.02 32.34 gems | 3.8% | 191 | 180.8 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $7.72 11.88 gems | 1.7% | 198 | 226.0 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 35.0% | $2.10 3.23 gems | 0.7% | 317 | 316.4 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-10 21:59 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-10 21:04 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-09 14:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-09 03:01 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-09 02:15 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-07 21:31 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-07 18:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $4,077 6,272 gems 33.07x 2026-11-07 18:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=demonic) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $123 190 gems $7.72 11.88 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $123 190 gems $7.72 11.88 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) Hidden $123 190 gems $125 193 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $53.51 82.33 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $123 190 gems $125 193 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $123 190 gems $7.72 11.88 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $53.51 82.33 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) [GetDGN.com | Code: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GetDGN.com%20%7C%20Code%3A%20DGN) $123 190 gems $21.02 32.34 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $123 190 gems $21.02 32.34 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $123 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 2.0% covert 3.0% classified 50.0% Ancient 10.0% restricted 35.0% best hit $4,077 (33.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt