--- title: "Deranged case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Deranged ($51.53) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.29% over 447 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged rendered: 2026-11-11T14:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Deranged](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Deranged A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=all) Price · $51.53 · 79.27 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $46.37 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.29% · 447 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 102.45% ±29.53 359 openings 30 days · 96.29% ±26.47 447 openings since tracking started · 96.29% ±26.47 447 openings 3.5% 76.3% 149.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=24h) | 60 | 76.35% ±72.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=7d) | 359 | 102.45% ±29.5 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged) | 447 | 96.29% ±26.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/deranged?window=all) | 447 | 96.29% ±26.5 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 480 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $970 1,492 gems | 41.8% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $350 539 gems | 15.1% | 14 | 9.6 | 1.46× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $242 373 gems | 15.7% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $97.06 149 gems | 12.6% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $38.62 59.42 gems | 6.7% | 43 | 38.4 | 1.12× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 14.0% | $23.26 35.79 gems | 7.0% | 57 | 67.2 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.48 5.36 gems | 1.1% | 80 | 72.0 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 228 | 240.0 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-10 15:38 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-09 18:37 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-06 12:57 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-05 18:46 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-04 23:09 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [STIANHAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/STIANHAY) $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-04 16:30 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-04 16:30 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $970 1,492 gems 18.82x 2026-11-03 17:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=deranged) [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $38.62 59.42 gems 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $3.48 5.36 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $38.62 59.42 gems 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) [xCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/xCK97x%20On%20Kick%20%7C%20CODE%20%3A%20%20CK97) $51.53 79.27 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $350 539 gems 6.80x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $23.26 35.79 gems 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $38.62 59.42 gems 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Sticker | Bum A Smoke sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bum-a-smoke) Hidden $51.53 79.27 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $51.53 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 2.0% Extraordinary 2.0% classified 3.0% industrial 6.0% restricted 22.0% covert 15.0% High Grade 50.0% best hit $970 (18.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt