--- title: "Desert Ops case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Desert Ops ($43.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 84.53% over 92 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Desert Ops](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Desert Ops A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=all) Price · $43.80 · 67.39 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $39.42 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.53% · 92 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 92 openings · below min since tracking started · 92 openings · below min 41.0% 151.5% 262.0% **Small sample.** 92 openings and 16.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=24h) | 6 | 163.54% ±98.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=7d) | 52 | 74.81% ±33.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops) | 92 | 84.53% ±25.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-ops?window=all) | 92 | 84.53% ±25.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $168 259 gems | 38.4% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $111 171 gems | 25.3% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $79.23 122 gems | 18.1% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $44.07 67.8 gems | 10.1% | 5 | 10.9 | 0.46× | | [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.40 39.08 gems | 1.9% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× | | [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $12.17 18.72 gems | 2.2% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× | | [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.84 10.52 gems | 1.7% | 15 | 12.1 | 1.24× | | [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 44.0% | $2.03 3.12 gems | 2.3% | 57 | 53.2 | 1.07× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=desert-ops) [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $2.03 3.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $111 171 gems 2.53x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $111 171 gems 2.53x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $168 259 gems 3.84x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-factory-new) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $12.17 18.72 gems 0.28x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-factory-new) [w1lly18](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/w1lly18) $43.80 67.39 gems $25.40 39.08 gems 0.58x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $79.23 122 gems 1.81x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $44.07 67.8 gems 1.01x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC [MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $79.23 122 gems 1.81x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) Hidden $43.80 67.39 gems $2.03 3.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-09 16:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $43.80 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 18.0% covert 9.0% classified 19.0% industrial 3.0% violet 7.0% restricted 44.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt