--- title: "Desert Sand case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Desert Sand ($2.83) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.86% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.61% over 7,538 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Desert Sand](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Desert Sand A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=all) Price · $2.83 · 4.35 gems Advertised RTP · 89.86% · EV $2.54 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.61% · 7,538 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.91% ±15.22 767 openings 7 days · 90.56% ±5.13 6,758 openings 30 days · 90.61% ±4.85 7,538 openings since tracking started · 90.61% ±4.85 7,538 openings 59.0% 77.8% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=24h) | 767 | 74.91% ±15.2 | −1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=7d) | 6,758 | 90.56% ±5.13 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand) | 7,538 | 90.61% ±4.85 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desert-sand?window=all) | 7,538 | 90.61% ±4.85 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,648 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $23.29 35.83 gems | 45.8% | 389 | 382.4 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Sand Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $17.13 26.36 gems | 33.7% | 385 | 382.4 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Quick Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-quick-sand-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.81 5.86 gems | 15.0% | 740 | 764.8 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.82 2.8 gems | 3.6% | 391 | 382.4 | 1.02× | | [MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.36 0.55 gems | 1.4% | 768 | 764.8 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.3% | 1,547 | 1529.6 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.2% | 1,487 | 1529.6 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 0.1% | 1,941 | 1912.1 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=desert-sand) [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) [VYCK4](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VYCK4) $2.83 4.35 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems $0.36 0.55 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.83 4.35 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.83 | 89.86% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 10.0% consumer 50.0% restricted 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Consumer Grade 10.0% Consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.86 on average: an expected loss of $10.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt