--- title: "Desires case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Desires ($10,125.93) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.69% from 15 items with odds, observed 150.46% over 54 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Desires](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Desires A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=all) Price · $10,125.93 · 15,578 gems Advertised RTP · 87.69% · EV $8,879.25 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 150.46% · 54 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 36 openings · below min 30 days · 54 openings · below min since tracking started · 54 openings · below min 23.5% 122.8% 222.0% **Small sample.** 54 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=24h) | 36 | 111.30% ±86.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=7d) | 36 | 111.30% ±86.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires) | 54 | 150.46% ±71.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/desires?window=all) | 54 | 150.46% ±71.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $137K 210,000 gems | 30.7% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $127K 195,000 gems | 28.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 12.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $34.1K 52,490 gems | 7.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $29K 44,570 gems | 6.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $12.6K 19,390 gems | 7.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $4,551 7,002 gems | 2.6% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2,716 4,179 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,423 2,190 gems | 0.8% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $842 1,295 gems | 0.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $531 817 gems | 0.3% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 15.0% | $381 586 gems | 0.6% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $197 303 gems | 0.3% | 12 | 8.1 | 1.48× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $100 154 gems | 0.2% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $83.43 128 gems | 0.1% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $137K 210,000 gems 13.48x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $137K 210,000 gems 13.48x 2026-11-03 22:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $137K 210,000 gems 13.48x 2026-11-03 22:54 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $127K 195,000 gems 12.52x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $127K 195,000 gems 12.52x 2026-11-03 22:54 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 5.46x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $34.1K 52,490 gems 3.37x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $12.6K 19,390 gems 1.24x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) [Rodarius Marcell Green Jr II](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rodarius%20Marcell%20Green%20Jr%20II) $10.1K 15,578 gems $12.6K 19,390 gems 1.24x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $12.6K 19,390 gems 1.24x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=desires) [Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $12.6K 19,390 gems 1.24x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $2,716 4,179 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $381 586 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $34.1K 52,490 gems 3.37x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $531 817 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Rodarius Marcell Green Jr II](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rodarius%20Marcell%20Green%20Jr%20II) $10.1K 15,578 gems $100 154 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $381 586 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $842 1,295 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) [Rodarius Marcell Green Jr II](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rodarius%20Marcell%20Green%20Jr%20II) $10.1K 15,578 gems $197 303 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.1K 15,578 gems $197 303 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $10.1K | 87.69% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 4.0% covert 24.0% legendary 2.0% remarkable 10.0% contraband 5.0% #ffd700 5.0% classified 5.0% rare 15.0% extraordinary 15.0% covert knife 15.0% best hit $137K (13.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.69 on average: an expected loss of $12.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt