--- title: "Disco Ball case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Disco Ball ($21.39) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.31% over 1,422 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball rendered: 2026-11-11T17:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Disco Ball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Disco Ball A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=all) Price · $21.39 · 32.9 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.25 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.31% · 1,422 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.18% ±24.74 332 openings 7 days · 86.82% ±12.92 1,217 openings 30 days · 84.31% ±11.95 1,422 openings since tracking started · 84.31% ±11.95 1,422 openings 62.0% 87.3% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=24h) | 332 | 87.18% ±24.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=7d) | 1,217 | 86.82% ±12.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball) | 1,422 | 84.31% ±12.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/disco-ball?window=all) | 1,422 | 84.31% ±12.0 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,467 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $715 1,100 gems | 9.3% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $208 319 gems | 10.8% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $147 225 gems | 7.6% | 11 | 14.7 | 0.75× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $117 180 gems | 12.2% | 28 | 29.3 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $114 175 gems | 11.8% | 28 | 29.3 | 0.95× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $77.43 119 gems | 12.1% | 35 | 44.0 | 0.80× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $60.89 93.68 gems | 9.5% | 46 | 44.0 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 10.0% | $14.01 21.55 gems | 7.3% | 144 | 146.7 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.37 12.88 gems | 4.4% | 157 | 146.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $6.42 9.88 gems | 6.7% | 287 | 293.4 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.34 8.22 gems | 5.6% | 298 | 293.4 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 27.8% | $2.02 3.11 gems | 2.9% | 417 | 407.1 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $715 1,100 gems 33.43x 2026-11-10 19:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $715 1,100 gems 33.43x 2026-11-07 16:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $715 1,100 gems 33.43x 2026-11-06 13:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=disco-ball) [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $5.34 8.22 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $6.42 9.88 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $8.37 12.88 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $208 319 gems 9.71x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $6.42 9.88 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) [Milanius](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Milanius) $21.39 32.9 gems $14.01 21.55 gems 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $2.02 3.11 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $14.01 21.55 gems 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $5.34 8.22 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) Hidden $21.39 32.9 gems $5.34 8.22 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $21.39 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% rare 15.0% epic 2.0% covert 22.0% gold 3.0% classified 10.0% Ancient 20.0% Legendary 27.8% best hit $715 (33.43x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt