--- title: "Do or Die case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Do or Die ($1,315.51) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 95.66% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Do or Die](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Do or Die A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=all) Price · $1,315.51 · 2,024 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,183.96 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.66% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 50.0% 95.8% 141.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die) | 12 | 95.66% ±44.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/do-or-die?window=all) | 12 | 95.66% ±44.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 15.0% | $2,532 3,895 gems | 32.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 17.0% | $2,225 3,423 gems | 31.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 18.0% | $1,936 2,979 gems | 29.4% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.85× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $288 444 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 17.0% | $98.49 152 gems | 1.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 18.0% | $96.62 149 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $2,225 3,423 gems 1.69x 2026-11-03 16:07 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $2,225 3,423 gems 1.69x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $2,225 3,423 gems 1.69x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [Gentle Anteater](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gentle%20Anteater) $1,316 2,024 gems $1,936 2,979 gems 1.47x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $1,936 2,979 gems 1.47x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $1,936 2,979 gems 1.47x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $1,316 2,024 gems $1,936 2,979 gems 1.47x 2026-11-03 15:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=do-or-die) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,316 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 32.0% contraband 18.0% covert knife 15.0% Covert 35.0% best hit $2,225 (1.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt