--- title: "Double Down Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Double Down Case ($32.37) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.07% over 1,211 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case rendered: 2026-11-11T23:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Double Down Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Double Down Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=all) Price · $32.37 · 49.8 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $29.13 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.07% · 1,211 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.99% ±16.59 292 openings 7 days · 88.84% ±8.54 1,101 openings 30 days · 89.07% ±8.15 1,211 openings since tracking started · 89.07% ±8.15 1,211 openings 69.0% 86.0% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=24h) | 292 | 85.99% ±16.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=7d) | 1,101 | 88.84% ±8.54 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case) | 1,211 | 89.07% ±8.15 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-down-case?window=all) | 1,211 | 89.07% ±8.15 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,247 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $247 380 gems | 17.0% | 23 | 24.9 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $172 264 gems | 17.7% | 29 | 37.4 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $85.49 132 gems | 14.7% | 68 | 62.4 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $58.67 90.26 gems | 20.1% | 147 | 124.7 | 1.18× | | [SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tornado-factory-new) | 10.0% | $38.44 59.14 gems | 13.2% | 127 | 124.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $23.39 35.99 gems | 8.0% | 127 | 124.7 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $12.56 19.32 gems | 4.3% | 105 | 124.7 | 0.84× | | [SG 553 \| Traveler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $5.85 9 gems | 4.0% | 225 | 249.4 | 0.90× | | [SSG 08 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.95 1.46 gems | 1.0% | 396 | 374.1 | 1.06× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=double-down-case) [SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $0.95 1.46 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:06 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $23.39 35.99 gems 0.72x 2026-11-11 22:06 UTC [SG 553 | Traveler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-traveler-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $5.85 9 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $0.95 1.46 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $0.95 1.46 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $23.39 35.99 gems 0.72x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Galil AR | Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $172 264 gems 5.31x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) [Aggressive Moose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aggressive%20Moose) $32.37 49.8 gems $0.95 1.46 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $12.56 19.32 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-factory-new) Hidden $32.37 49.8 gems $0.95 1.46 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $32.37 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 2.0% Industrial Grade 23.0% industrial 15.0% restricted 10.0% gray 10.0% #777777 10.0% Consumer Grade 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt