--- title: "Double or Dust case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Double or Dust ($46.86) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 197.39% over 1,418 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust rendered: 2026-11-11T17:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Double or Dust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Double or Dust A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=all) Price · $46.86 · 72.1 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $42.18 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 197.39% · 1,418 openings, odds method Variance · 785.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 492 openings · below min 7 days · 1,253 openings · below min 30 days · 1,418 openings · below min since tracking started · 1,418 openings · below min -0.5% 188.8% 378.0% **Small sample.** 1,418 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=24h) | 492 | 17.32% ±247.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=7d) | 1,253 | 222.29% ±155.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust) | 1,418 | 197.39% ±145.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/double-or-dust?window=all) | 1,418 | 197.39% ±145.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,521 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-sovereign-flame-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $58.5K 90,000 gems | 69.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,329 3,583 gems | 8.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,794 2,760 gems | 8.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.31× | | [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $361 555 gems | 5.1% | 4 | 9.1 | 0.44× | | [Music Kit \| Killer Mike, MICHAEL music kit · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-killer-mike-michael) | 12.0% | $8.95 13.77 gems | 2.5% | 198 | 182.5 | 1.08× | | [Music Kit \| Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-knock2-dashstar) | 12.0% | $6.39 9.83 gems | 1.8% | 190 | 182.5 | 1.04× | | [Music Kit \| TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lights music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-twerl-and-ekko-and-sidetrack-under-bright-lights) | 12.0% | $4.86 7.47 gems | 1.4% | 178 | 182.5 | 0.98× | | [Music Kit \| Freaky DNA, Vici music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-freaky-dna-vici) | 12.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 1.0% | 191 | 182.5 | 1.05× | | [Music Kit \| ALRT, DOPAMINE HIT music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-alrt-dopamine-hit) | 12.0% | $2.28 3.51 gems | 0.6% | 176 | 182.5 | 0.96× | | [Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) | 12.0% | $1.92 2.96 gems | 0.5% | 185 | 182.5 | 1.01× | | [Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) | 12.0% | $1.41 2.17 gems | 0.4% | 174 | 182.5 | 0.95× | | [Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpened music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-noisia-sharpened) | 15.0% | $1.20 1.84 gems | 0.4% | 217 | 228.2 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-sovereign-flame-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $58.5K 90,000 gems 1,248x 2026-11-07 17:26 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-sovereign-flame-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $58.5K 90,000 gems 1,248x 2026-11-05 20:03 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Sovereign Flame (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-sovereign-flame-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $58.5K 90,000 gems 1,248x 2026-11-02 23:43 UTC [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) [♛Sean](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%99%9BSean) $46.86 72.1 gems $2,329 3,583 gems 49.69x 2026-11-06 19:11 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $1,794 2,760 gems 38.28x 2026-11-10 18:26 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $1,794 2,760 gems 38.28x 2026-11-09 18:08 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $1,794 2,760 gems 38.28x 2026-11-06 12:52 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $1,794 2,760 gems 38.28x 2026-11-03 00:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=double-or-dust) [Music Kit | Killer Mike, MICHAEL music kit · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-killer-mike-michael) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $8.95 13.77 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-knock2-dashstar) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $6.39 9.83 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | Killer Mike, MICHAEL music kit · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-killer-mike-michael) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $8.95 13.77 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | Noisia, Sharpened music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-noisia-sharpened) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $1.20 1.84 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | Neck Deep, The Lowlife Pack music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-neck-deep-the-lowlife-pack) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $46.86 72.1 gems $1.92 2.96 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmas music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-midnight-riders-all-i-want-for-christmas) [Ceontea](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ceontea) $46.86 72.1 gems $1.41 2.17 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Music Kit | ALRT, DOPAMINE HIT music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-alrt-dopamine-hit) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $2.28 3.51 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [Music Kit | ALRT, DOPAMINE HIT music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-alrt-dopamine-hit) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $2.28 3.51 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-knock2-dashstar) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $6.39 9.83 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [Music Kit | Knock2, dashstar\* music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-knock2-dashstar) Hidden $46.86 72.1 gems $6.39 9.83 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $46.86 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 12.0% other 24.2% covert 0.8% uncommon 12.0% High Grade 12.0% high 24.0% blue 15.0% best hit $58.5K (1,248x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt