--- title: "Down Bad Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Down Bad Case ($43.11) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 95.88% over 322 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Down Bad Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Down Bad Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=all) Price · $43.11 · 66.32 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $38.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.88% · 322 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 61 openings · below min 7 days · 91.20% ±19.70 252 openings 30 days · 95.88% ±17.43 322 openings since tracking started · 95.88% ±17.43 322 openings 47.5% 88.3% 129.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=24h) | 61 | 88.12% ±40.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=7d) | 252 | 91.20% ±19.7 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case) | 322 | 95.88% ±17.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/down-bad-case?window=all) | 322 | 95.88% ±17.4 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $278 427 gems | 35.8% | 21 | 17.6 | 1.20× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $169 260 gems | 21.8% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $106 163 gems | 13.7% | 20 | 17.6 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $64.21 98.79 gems | 8.3% | 22 | 17.6 | 1.25× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.76 65.78 gems | 5.5% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 10.0% | $24.82 38.19 gems | 6.4% | 42 | 35.1 | 1.20× | | [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 15.0% | $14.11 21.71 gems | 5.5% | 48 | 52.6 | 0.91× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.86 9.02 gems | 2.3% | 54 | 52.6 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.96 1.48 gems | 0.9% | 112 | 122.8 | 0.91× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=down-bad-case) [Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $14.11 21.71 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $0.96 1.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $64.21 98.79 gems 1.49x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $43.11 66.32 gems $0.96 1.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC [R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $5.86 9.02 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $0.96 1.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $43.11 66.32 gems $0.96 1.48 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $14.11 21.71 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $14.11 21.71 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $43.11 66.32 gems $42.76 65.78 gems 0.99x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $43.11 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% #5E98D9 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 5.0% #87c7ff 10.0% mil spec 15.0% classified 15.0% consumer 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt