--- title: "Dragon Degen case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dragon Degen ($125.38) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 77.71% over 110 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen rendered: 2026-11-11T17:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Dragon Degen](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Dragon Degen A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=all) Price · $125.38 · 193 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $112.84 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.71% · 110 openings, odds method Variance · 18.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 77.71% ±79.79 110 openings since tracking started · 77.71% ±79.79 110 openings -0.5% 91.0% 182.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=7d) | 80 | 88.52% ±93.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen) | 110 | 77.71% ±79.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dragon-degen?window=all) | 110 | 77.71% ±79.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $7,811 12,017 gems | 13.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $6,045 9,300 gems | 10.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $4,583 7,052 gems | 8.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $4,036 6,209 gems | 7.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $3,597 5,534 gems | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 99.0% | $61.31 94.32 gems | 53.8% | 109 | 108.9 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [TIP](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TIP) $125 193 gems $4,036 6,209 gems 32.19x 2026-11-05 04:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=dragon-degen) [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [Isti0308](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Isti0308) $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-10 16:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-09 03:00 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-09 03:00 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-09 03:00 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 193 gems $61.31 94.32 gems 0.49x 2026-11-09 03:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $125 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 99.8% legendary 0.2% best hit $4,036 (32.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt