--- title: "Dream On case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Dream On ($1,187.33) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 86.47% over 146 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Dream On](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Dream On A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=all) Price · $1,187.33 · 1,827 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,068.59 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.47% · 146 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 91.01% ±29.93 128 openings 30 days · 86.47% ±28.02 146 openings since tracking started · 86.47% ±28.02 146 openings 17.0% 70.0% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=24h) | 42 | 70.11% ±52.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=7d) | 128 | 91.01% ±29.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on) | 146 | 86.47% ±28.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/dream-on?window=all) | 146 | 86.47% ±28.0 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 146 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7,378 11,350 gems | 34.5% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6,263 9,636 gems | 29.3% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,948 4,535 gems | 13.8% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,751 2,694 gems | 8.2% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $978 1,504 gems | 4.6% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $560 861 gems | 2.6% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $375 577 gems | 1.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $313 482 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 7.3 | 0.14× | | [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $178 274 gems | 0.8% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $97.50 150 gems | 0.5% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| LongDog (AWP \| LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) | 50.0% | $53.09 81.68 gems | 2.5% | 79 | 73.0 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $7,378 11,350 gems 6.21x 2026-11-06 00:10 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Mochi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mochi) $1,187 1,827 gems $7,378 11,350 gems 6.21x 2026-11-05 13:20 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $7,378 11,350 gems 6.21x 2026-11-04 14:46 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $7,378 11,350 gems 6.21x 2026-11-04 14:46 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $7,378 11,350 gems 6.21x 2026-11-03 17:31 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-11 00:27 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-11 00:27 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-10 03:10 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-10 03:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=dream-on) [AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $53.09 81.68 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $6,263 9,636 gems 5.28x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $53.09 81.68 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $978 1,504 gems 0.82x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $53.09 81.68 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) [Mochi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mochi) $1,187 1,827 gems $2,948 4,535 gems 2.48x 2026-11-11 00:33 UTC [AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $53.09 81.68 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [AWP | LongDog (AWP | LongDog) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-awp-longdog) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $53.09 81.68 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $97.50 150 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $1,187 1,827 gems $375 577 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 00:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,187 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 50.0% other 50.0% best hit $7,378 (6.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt