--- title: "Elixir case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Elixir ($1,689.19) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 67.09% over 168 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir rendered: 2026-11-11T14:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Elixir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Elixir A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=all) Price · $1,689.19 · 2,599 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,520.26 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.09% · 168 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 70.11% ±38.80 150 openings 30 days · 67.09% ±36.66 168 openings since tracking started · 67.09% ±36.66 168 openings -0.5% 69.0% 138.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=24h) | 12 | 0.46% ±137.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=7d) | 150 | 70.11% ±38.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir) | 168 | 67.09% ±36.7 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/elixir?window=all) | 168 | 67.09% ±36.7 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 12.0% | $12.6K 19,400 gems | 99.5% | 15 | 20.2 | 0.74× | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 12.0% | $23.97 36.87 gems | 0.2% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 12.0% | $17.20 26.46 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 12.0% | $7.58 11.66 gems | 0.1% | 24 | 20.2 | 1.19× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.32 8.19 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 20.2 | 1.49× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $2.58 3.97 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 30.2 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 22.0% | $0.57 0.88 gems | 0.0% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-10 10:00 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-08 20:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-07 12:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-07 12:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-07 12:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-07 01:12 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [jurassicpeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jurassicpeek) $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-07 01:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-06 12:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-06 12:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $12.6K 19,400 gems 7.47x 2026-11-05 12:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=elixir) [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $5.32 8.19 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $5.32 8.19 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $0.57 0.88 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $0.57 0.88 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $7.58 11.66 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [Hydrarewards.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Hydrarewards.com) $1,689 2,599 gems $7.58 11.66 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $17.20 26.46 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $23.97 36.87 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $17.20 26.46 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $1,689 2,599 gems $0.57 0.88 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1,689 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.0% classified 48.0% mil spec 40.0% best hit $12.6K (7.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt