--- title: "Eruption case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Eruption ($29.91) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 76.40% over 537 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Eruption](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Eruption A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=all) Price · $29.91 · 46.01 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.91 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.40% · 537 openings, odds method Variance · 12.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 45 openings · below min 7 days · 77.11% ±31.60 468 openings 30 days · 76.40% ±29.50 537 openings since tracking started · 76.40% ±29.50 537 openings -0.5% 85.5% 171.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=24h) | 45 | 69.17% ±101.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=7d) | 468 | 77.11% ±31.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption) | 537 | 76.40% ±29.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/eruption?window=all) | 537 | 76.40% ±29.5 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,131 1,740 gems | 31.5% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $173 267 gems | 16.1% | 16 | 13.9 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $165 253 gems | 15.3% | 19 | 13.9 | 1.37× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $128 197 gems | 14.3% | 15 | 16.6 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $27.37 42.1 gems | 5.1% | 28 | 27.8 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $20.90 32.15 gems | 3.9% | 35 | 27.8 | 1.26× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 20 | $15.80 24.31 gems | 2.9% | 30 | 27.8 | 1.08× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Well-Worn) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $10.95 16.85 gems | 3.1% | 47 | 41.6 | 1.13× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $9.67 14.88 gems | 2.7% | 34 | 41.6 | 0.82× | | [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.98 6.13 gems | 1.5% | 48 | 55.5 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) | 20.0% | $2.41 3.71 gems | 1.8% | 116 | 111.0 | 1.05× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 31.3% | $1.63 2.5 gems | 1.9% | 166 | 173.4 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $1,131 1,740 gems 37.82x 2026-11-05 11:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=eruption) [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $1.63 2.5 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $173 267 gems 5.79x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) [Zed\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Zed_) $29.91 46.01 gems $2.41 3.71 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Well-Worn) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-well-worn) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $10.95 16.85 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $2.41 3.71 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $3.98 6.13 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $1.63 2.5 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [Sticker | Firestarter (Holo) sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-firestarter-holo) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $2.41 3.71 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Well-Worn) weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-well-worn) [duccster](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/duccster) $29.91 46.01 gems $10.95 16.85 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $29.91 46.01 gems $1.63 2.5 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $29.91 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.8% mil spec 2.5% classified 3.0% milspec 5.0% remarkable 5.0% Heavy 7.5% pink 10.0% Rare 20.0% blue 31.3% best hit $1,131 (37.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt