--- title: "Exalted Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Exalted Case ($88.16) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 78.98% over 832 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Exalted Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Exalted Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=all) Price · $88.16 · 136 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $79.34 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.98% · 832 openings, odds method Variance · 10.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 80.42% ±22.10 792 openings 30 days · 78.98% ±21.57 832 openings since tracking started · 78.98% ±21.57 832 openings 57.0% 180.8% 304.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=24h) | 38 | 203.12% ±100.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=7d) | 792 | 80.42% ±22.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case) | 832 | 78.98% ±21.6 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exalted-case?window=all) | 832 | 78.98% ±21.6 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 832 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,695 10,300 gems | 4.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $4,050 6,231 gems | 10.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,722 2,649 gems | 10.9% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $649 999 gems | 6.1% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $501 770 gems | 9.5% | 7 | 12.5 | 0.56× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $314 482 gems | 11.9% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $247 380 gems | 12.5% | 35 | 33.3 | 1.05× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $164 252 gems | 10.3% | 36 | 41.6 | 0.87× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $72.02 111 gems | 9.1% | 79 | 83.2 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $43.37 66.72 gems | 8.2% | 144 | 124.8 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 25.0% | $18.22 28.03 gems | 5.7% | 222 | 208.0 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 35.0% | $3.36 5.17 gems | 1.5% | 270 | 291.2 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $4,050 6,231 gems 45.94x 2026-11-10 18:32 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $4,050 6,231 gems 45.94x 2026-11-05 19:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $1,722 2,649 gems 19.53x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-10 14:47 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-06 13:34 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-05 21:38 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-05 20:58 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-05 20:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $501 770 gems 5.68x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=exalted-case) [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $164 252 gems 1.86x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $3.36 5.17 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $3.36 5.17 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $72.02 111 gems 0.82x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [AK-47 | The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $649 999 gems 7.37x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-minimal-wear) [Energetic Lion](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Energetic%20Lion) $88.16 136 gems $43.37 66.72 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $72.02 111 gems 0.82x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $18.22 28.03 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $3.36 5.17 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $88.16 136 gems $18.22 28.03 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $88.16 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 84.2% red 0.8% restricted 15.0% best hit $4,050 (45.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt