--- title: "Exciled case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Exciled ($0.07) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.91% from 4 items with odds, observed 85.54% over 49.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled rendered: 2026-11-11T12:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Exciled](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Exciled A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=all) Price · $0.07 · 0.11 gems Advertised RTP · 85.91% · EV $0.06 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.54% · 49.3K openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.50% ±3.52 8,181 openings 7 days · 85.40% ±1.55 42.2K openings 30 days · 85.54% ±1.44 49.3K openings since tracking started · 85.54% ±1.44 49.3K openings 81.5% 85.5% 89.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=24h) | 8,181 | 85.50% ±3.52 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=7d) | 42.2K | 85.40% ±1.55 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled) | 49.3K | 85.54% ±1.44 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/exciled?window=all) | 49.3K | 85.54% ±1.44 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 82.5% | 7,527 | 7547.8 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 7.9% | 12,515 | 12579.6 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 6.3% | 15,235 | 15095.5 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 gems | 3.2% | 15,042 | 15096.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=exciled) [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 4.73x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 4.73x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) [1odrof](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/1odrof) $0.07 0.11 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 4.73x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-factory-new) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 4.73x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.07 0.11 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.07 | 85.91% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 15.0% Mil Spec 25.0% Consumer 30.0% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.91 on average: an expected loss of $14.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt