--- title: "Expanding Domain case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Expanding Domain ($2,165.11) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 63.87% over 30 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Expanding Domain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Expanding Domain A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=all) Price · $2,165.11 · 3,331 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,948.58 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 63.87% · 30 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 30 openings · below min since tracking started · 30 openings · below min -0.5% 86.3% 173.0% **Small sample.** 30 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=7d) | 24 | 74.28% ±98.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain) | 30 | 63.87% ±87.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/expanding-domain?window=all) | 30 | 63.87% ±87.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $29.1K 44,727 gems | 37.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 40 | $17.6K 27,018 gems | 22.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20 | $6,637 10,210 gems | 17.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2,653 4,081 gems | 13.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,394 2,144 gems | 7.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $293 451 gems | 1.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $114 175 gems | 0.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 10.0% | $48.70 74.92 gems | 0.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) | 40.0% | $1.79 2.76 gems | 0.0% | 15 | 12.0 | 1.25× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) [Kick.com/Romix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick.com%2FRomix) $2,165 3,331 gems $17.6K 27,018 gems 8.11x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $6,637 10,210 gems 3.07x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) [Chuck](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Chuck) $2,165 3,331 gems $6,637 10,210 gems 3.07x 2026-11-06 12:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $2,653 4,081 gems 1.23x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $2,653 4,081 gems 1.23x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1,394 2,144 gems 0.64x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1,394 2,144 gems 0.64x 2026-11-04 14:48 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1,394 2,144 gems 0.64x 2026-11-04 14:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=expanding-domain) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $48.70 74.92 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $2,653 4,081 gems 1.23x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $6,637 10,210 gems 3.07x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) [Kick.com/Romix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick.com%2FRomix) $2,165 3,331 gems $17.6K 27,018 gems 8.11x 2026-11-10 19:56 UTC [Sticker | Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC [Sticker | Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $2,653 4,081 gems 1.23x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC [Sticker | Rage sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rage) Hidden $2,165 3,331 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.00x 2026-11-08 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2,165 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 22.5% base 2.5% remarkable 5.0% Covert 10.0% legendary 10.0% covert knife 10.0% blue 40.0% best hit $17.6K (8.11x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt