--- title: "Experiment case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Experiment ($221.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 112.51% over 499 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment rendered: 2026-11-11T19:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Experiment](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Experiment A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=all) Price · $221.27 · 340 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $199.14 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.51% · 499 openings, odds method Variance · 15.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 135 openings · below min 7 days · 116.83% ±36.44 439 openings 30 days · 112.51% ±34.18 499 openings since tracking started · 112.51% ±34.18 499 openings 77.5% 150.3% 223.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=24h) | 135 | 156.49% ±65.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=7d) | 439 | 116.83% ±36.4 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment) | 499 | 112.51% ±34.2 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/experiment?window=all) | 499 | 112.51% ±34.2 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 499 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $6,193 9,528 gems | 62.2% | 15 | 10.0 | 1.50× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $468 720 gems | 9.4% | 7 | 20.0 | 0.35× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $289 445 gems | 8.7% | 30 | 29.9 | 1.00× | | [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 16.0% | $72.24 111 gems | 5.8% | 65 | 79.8 | 0.81× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 32.0% | $45.22 69.57 gems | 7.3% | 159 | 159.7 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 32.0% | $40.94 62.99 gems | 6.6% | 182 | 159.7 | 1.14× | | [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.17 1.8 gems | 0.0% | 41 | 39.9 | 1.03× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 02:48 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) [GetDGN.com | Code: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GetDGN.com%20%7C%20Code%3A%20DGN) $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 02:48 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 00:27 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 00:10 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-11 00:05 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) [1010010101](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/1010010101) $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-10 12:42 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-10 12:29 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-09 17:22 UTC [Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $221 340 gems $6,193 9,528 gems 27.99x 2026-11-08 17:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=experiment) [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $40.94 62.99 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $40.94 62.99 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $40.94 62.99 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $468 720 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $45.22 69.57 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $221 340 gems $289 445 gems 1.31x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $40.94 62.99 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [XM1014 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $72.24 111 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $45.22 69.57 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $221 340 gems $45.22 69.57 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $221 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 2.0% covert 4.0% restricted 6.0% other 16.0% industrial 64.0% Uncommon 8.0% best hit $6,193 (27.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt