--- title: "Extra Terrestrial case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Extra Terrestrial ($3.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.86% from 7 items with odds, observed 88.02% over 7,303 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Extra Terrestrial](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Extra Terrestrial A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=all) Price · $3.59 · 5.52 gems Advertised RTP · 89.86% · EV $3.22 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.02% · 7,303 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.13% ±10.50 1,312 openings 7 days · 88.39% ±4.61 6,817 openings 30 days · 88.02% ±4.45 7,303 openings since tracking started · 88.02% ±4.45 7,303 openings 73.0% 84.3% 95.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=24h) | 1,312 | 84.13% ±10.5 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=7d) | 6,817 | 88.39% ±4.61 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial) | 7,303 | 88.02% ±4.45 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/extra-terrestrial?window=all) | 7,303 | 88.02% ±4.45 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,355 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $48.70 74.92 gems | 30.2% | 128 | 147.1 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $12.96 19.94 gems | 12.1% | 219 | 220.6 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.87 12.1 gems | 12.2% | 414 | 367.7 | 1.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 10.5% | 740 | 735.5 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 15.0% | $2.61 4.02 gems | 12.2% | 1,108 | 1103.2 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.41 3.71 gems | 11.2% | 1,138 | 1103.2 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) | 50.0% | $0.75 1.16 gems | 11.7% | 3,608 | 3677.5 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=extra-terrestrial) [P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $0.75 1.16 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $0.75 1.16 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $2.61 4.02 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) [ByRcHyZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ByRcHyZ) $3.59 5.52 gems $3.37 5.19 gems 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $2.61 4.02 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $0.75 1.16 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $3.59 5.52 gems $2.41 3.71 gems 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $0.75 1.16 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.59 5.52 gems $7.87 12.1 gems 2.19x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $3.59 5.52 gems $2.41 3.71 gems 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.59 | 89.86% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.0% restricted 65.0% #8847ff 15.0% #d32ee6 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.86 on average: an expected loss of $10.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt