--- title: "Fact or Cap case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fact or Cap ($313.64) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 3 items with odds, observed 88.47% over 301 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Fact or Cap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Fact or Cap A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=all) Price · $313.64 · 483 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $282.27 from 3 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.47% · 301 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 81.55% ±15.92 151 openings 30 days · 88.47% ±11.27 301 openings since tracking started · 88.47% ±11.27 301 openings 30.5% 77.3% 124.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=24h) | 18 | 77.29% ±46.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=7d) | 151 | 81.55% ±15.9 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap) | 301 | 88.47% ±11.3 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fact-or-cap?window=all) | 301 | 88.47% ±11.3 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 301 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 40.0% | $665 1,024 gems | 94.3% | 118 | 120.4 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $39.01 60.02 gems | 4.1% | 95 | 90.3 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 30.0% | $14.67 22.57 gems | 1.6% | 88 | 90.3 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 14:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 14:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 00:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-09 00:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-09 00:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-09 00:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=fact-or-cap) [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $314 483 gems $39.01 60.02 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $314 483 gems $39.01 60.02 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $314 483 gems $14.67 22.57 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $314 483 gems $665 1,024 gems 2.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $314 483 gems $39.01 60.02 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $314 483 gems $14.67 22.57 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $314 483 gems $39.01 60.02 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $314 483 gems $39.01 60.02 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $314 | 90.00% | 3 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 100.0% best hit $665 (2.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt