--- title: "Factory case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Factory ($57.71) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 109.61% over 79 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Factory](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Factory A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=all) Price · $57.71 · 88.78 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $51.93 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 109.61% · 79 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 63 openings · below min 30 days · 79 openings · below min since tracking started · 79 openings · below min -0.5% 75.5% 151.5% **Small sample.** 79 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=24h) | 7 | 2.67% ±138.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=7d) | 63 | 94.58% ±46.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory) | 79 | 109.61% ±41.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/factory?window=all) | 79 | 109.61% ±41.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $579 892 gems | 33.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.11× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $205 315 gems | 27.6% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $81.22 125 gems | 15.6% | 4 | 7.9 | 0.51× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 15.0% | $65.04 100 gems | 18.8% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $29.53 45.43 gems | 1.1% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× | | [StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.86 21.33 gems | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× | | [Nova \| Interlock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.93 9.13 gems | 1.7% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.65 4.07 gems | 0.8% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 0.3% | 17 | 11.8 | 1.43× | | [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.23 0.35 gems | 0.1% | 9 | 12.6 | 0.71× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $579 892 gems 10.04x 2026-11-09 22:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [colin](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/colin) $57.71 88.78 gems $579 892 gems 10.04x 2026-11-08 22:50 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [VaderHighOnMilk](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VaderHighOnMilk) $57.71 88.78 gems $579 892 gems 10.04x 2026-11-07 22:23 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $579 892 gems 10.04x 2026-11-04 05:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $579 892 gems 10.04x 2026-11-03 19:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=factory) [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $57.71 88.78 gems $2.65 4.07 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $2.65 4.07 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $2.65 4.07 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $13.86 21.33 gems 0.24x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) Hidden $57.71 88.78 gems $205 315 gems 3.55x 2026-11-10 10:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $57.71 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% extraordinary 7.0% restricted 29.0% classified 15.0% mil spec 31.0% #8847ff 15.0% best hit $579 (10.04x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt