--- title: "Faded Lily case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Faded Lily ($60.86) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 151.43% over 102 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Faded Lily](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Faded Lily A case on Clash.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=all) Price · $60.86 · 93.63 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 151.43% · 102 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 102 openings · below min since tracking started · 102 openings · below min 14.0% 172.0% 330.0% **Small sample.** 102 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=24h) | 42 | 165.57% ±151.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=7d) | 60 | 194.53% ±134.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily) | 102 | 151.43% ±88.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded-lily?window=all) | 102 | 151.43% ±88.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Shadow) $60.86 93.63 gems $1,177 1,811 gems 19.34x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.22x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.22x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.22x 2026-11-08 19:35 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.22x 2026-11-08 19:31 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 19.22x 2026-11-04 15:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=faded-lily) [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | mixwell | Atlanta 2017 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mixwell-atlanta-2017) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $7.99 12.29 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | mixwell | Atlanta 2017 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mixwell-atlanta-2017) [Shadow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Shadow) $60.86 93.63 gems $7.99 12.29 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | OpTic Gaming (Holo) | Cologne 2016 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-optic-gaming-holo-cologne-2016) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $10.78 16.58 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | mixwell | Atlanta 2017 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mixwell-atlanta-2017) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $7.99 12.29 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | Great Wave (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-great-wave-foil) Hidden $60.86 93.63 gems $6.88 10.59 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,177 (19.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 151.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $151.43 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt