--- title: "Faded case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Faded ($104.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.28% over 172 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded rendered: 2026-11-11T22:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Faded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Faded A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=all) Price · $104.59 · 161 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $94.13 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.28% · 172 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 82.39% ±31.66 101 openings 30 days · 95.28% ±24.26 172 openings since tracking started · 95.28% ±24.26 172 openings 50.0% 134.5% 219.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=24h) | 16 | 138.90% ±79.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=7d) | 101 | 82.39% ±31.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded) | 172 | 95.28% ±24.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/faded?window=all) | 172 | 95.28% ±24.3 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $845 1,300 gems | 9.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $832 1,280 gems | 17.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $642 988 gems | 13.6% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $188 290 gems | 30.0% | 19 | 25.8 | 0.74× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $124 192 gems | 26.4% | 40 | 34.4 | 1.16× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $12.30 18.92 gems | 2.6% | 35 | 34.4 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.52 3.87 gems | 0.5% | 34 | 34.4 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.1% | 33 | 34.4 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [Aranel](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aranel) $105 161 gems $845 1,300 gems 8.08x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [???](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%3F%3F%3F) $105 161 gems $845 1,300 gems 8.08x 2026-11-08 20:38 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $845 1,300 gems 8.08x 2026-11-04 13:34 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $832 1,280 gems 7.96x 2026-11-03 09:17 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $832 1,280 gems 7.96x 2026-11-03 09:13 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-09 02:11 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-09 01:56 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-04 13:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=faded) [R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) Hidden $105 161 gems $2.52 3.87 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $105 161 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $188 290 gems 1.80x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $12.30 18.92 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $124 192 gems 1.19x 2026-11-11 04:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $12.30 18.92 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $12.30 18.92 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $105 161 gems $642 988 gems 6.14x 2026-11-11 04:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $105 161 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $105 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 1.0% epic 2.0% covert 42.0% classified 35.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit $845 (8.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt