---
title: "Falchion Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falchion Case ($2.46) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 29 items with odds, observed 85.49% over 12.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Falchion Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Falchion Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=all)

Price · $2.46 · 3.79 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $2.22 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.49% · 12.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 21.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.53% ±19.00 2,252 openings

7 days · 84.64% ±8.31 11.8K openings

30 days · 85.49% ±8.13 12.3K openings

since tracking started · 85.49% ±8.13 12.3K openings

61.0% 80.5% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=24h) | 2,252 | 80.53% ±19.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=7d) | 11.8K | 84.64% ±8.31 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case) | 12.3K | 85.49% ±8.13 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/falchion-case?window=all) | 12.3K | 85.49% ±8.13 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $514 790 gems | 4.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $219 337 gems | 2.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $212 326 gems | 1.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $179 275 gems | 1.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $172 265 gems | 1.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $164 253 gems | 1.5% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $141 218 gems | 1.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $137 210 gems | 1.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| ★ (Vanilla) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-vanilla-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $103 159 gems | 0.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $94.90 146 gems | 0.9% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $93.31 144 gems | 0.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $89.70 138 gems | 0.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.95 126 gems | 0.7% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $66.67 103 gems | 9.6% | 29 | 39.6 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $53.66 82.55 gems | 7.8% | 31 | 39.6 | 0.78× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $7.74 11.9 gems | 3.7% | 126 | 131.8 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $7.05 10.84 gems | 3.4% | 129 | 131.8 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $6.57 10.11 gems | 3.2% | 134 | 131.8 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 13.3% | $3.81 5.86 gems | 22.9% | 1,686 | 1646.9 | 1.02× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $3.28 5.05 gems | 4.7% | 379 | 395.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.46 3.78 gems | 3.5% | 413 | 395.2 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.87 2.88 gems | 2.7% | 377 | 395.2 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.19 1.83 gems | 1.7% | 370 | 395.2 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.05 1.62 gems | 1.5% | 389 | 395.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.83 1.28 gems | 5.0% | 1,627 | 1646.9 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.73 1.13 gems | 4.4% | 1,649 | 1646.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.46 0.71 gems | 2.8% | 1,652 | 1646.9 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.34 0.53 gems | 2.1% | 1,625 | 1646.9 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 1.1% | 1,718 | 1647.1 | 1.04× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $514 790 gems 208.4x 2026-11-09 23:38 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $514 790 gems 208.4x 2026-11-07 01:10 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $514 790 gems 208.4x 2026-11-04 22:08 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [MUSTASCHEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MUSTASCHEN) $2.46 3.79 gems $219 337 gems 88.82x 2026-11-04 22:36 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $212 326 gems 86.08x 2026-11-10 20:22 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $212 326 gems 86.08x 2026-11-07 13:35 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $212 326 gems 86.08x 2026-11-07 00:41 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $179 275 gems 72.56x 2026-11-11 00:15 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $179 275 gems 72.56x 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $172 265 gems 69.90x 2026-11-08 19:14 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=falchion-case)

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $1.05 1.62 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) [ByRcHyZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ByRcHyZ) $2.46 3.79 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $3.81 5.86 gems 1.55x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $0.73 1.13 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Nova | Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) [Elizabeth](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Elizabeth) $2.46 3.79 gems $0.34 0.53 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) Hidden $2.46 3.79 gems $0.83 1.28 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2.46 | 89.93% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.1% covert 0.7% other 0.0% pink 1.1% classified 2.1% Rare 13.3% violet 3.2% restricted 12.8% mil spec 53.3% #4b69ff 13.3% best hit $514 (208.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt