--- title: "False Prophet case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "False Prophet ($188.05) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 102.21% over 62 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet rendered: 2026-11-11T22:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [False Prophet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · False Prophet A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=all) Price · $188.05 · 289 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $169.24 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.21% · 62 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 52 openings · below min 30 days · 62 openings · below min since tracking started · 62 openings · below min 44.5% 129.0% 213.5% **Small sample.** 62 openings and 6.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=24h) | 18 | 132.51% ±80.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=7d) | 52 | 92.47% ±47.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet) | 62 | 102.21% ±43.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/false-prophet?window=all) | 62 | 102.21% ±43.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1,827 2,810 gems | 27.0% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.86× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1,105 1,700 gems | 16.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.40× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $474 729 gems | 14.0% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 10.0% | $267 411 gems | 15.8% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.40× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $101 156 gems | 9.0% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 20.0% | $60.48 93.05 gems | 7.1% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $43.95 67.61 gems | 5.2% | 18 | 17.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 25.0% | $37.78 58.13 gems | 5.6% | 22 | 21.5 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [https://kick.com/waxumfriendly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/https%3A%2F%2Fkick.com%2Fwaxumfriendly) $188 289 gems $1,827 2,810 gems 9.71x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,827 2,810 gems 9.71x 2026-11-03 18:17 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [•Cřytox•](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%80%A2C%C5%99ytox%E2%80%A2) $188 289 gems $1,827 2,810 gems 9.71x 2026-11-02 22:20 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,827 2,810 gems 9.71x 2026-11-02 22:20 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 5.88x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 5.88x 2026-11-06 15:11 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 5.88x 2026-11-02 22:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=false-prophet) [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 289 gems $43.95 67.61 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $37.78 58.13 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $188 289 gems $267 411 gems 1.42x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 289 gems $101 156 gems 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 289 gems $43.95 67.61 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) [https://kick.com/waxumfriendly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/https%3A%2F%2Fkick.com%2Fwaxumfriendly) $188 289 gems $1,827 2,810 gems 9.71x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $60.48 93.05 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $60.48 93.05 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) Hidden $188 289 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 5.88x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 289 gems $101 156 gems 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $188 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 2.5% covert 92.5% #eb4b4b 5.0% best hit $1,827 (9.71x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt