--- title: "Festive Fragfest case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Festive Fragfest ($21.44) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 101.79% over 4,709 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest rendered: 2026-11-11T20:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Festive Fragfest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Festive Fragfest A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=all) Price · $21.44 · 32.99 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.30 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.79% · 4,709 openings, odds method Variance · 54.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 702 openings · below min 7 days · 97.60% ±24.37 3,505 openings 30 days · 101.79% ±21.03 4,709 openings since tracking started · 101.79% ±21.03 4,709 openings 40.0% 95.0% 150.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=24h) | 702 | 95.03% ±54.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=7d) | 3,505 | 97.60% ±24.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest) | 4,709 | 101.79% ±21.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/festive-fragfest?window=all) | 4,709 | 101.79% ±21.0 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,806 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,197 3,380 gems | 56.9% | 30 | 24.0 | 1.25× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $309 476 gems | 16.0% | 47 | 48.1 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $121 186 gems | 6.3% | 46 | 48.1 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $56.52 86.96 gems | 2.9% | 52 | 48.1 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $23.21 35.7 gems | 1.2% | 52 | 48.1 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 45.5% | $6.43 9.89 gems | 15.2% | 2,156 | 2186.7 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.58 0.89 gems | 1.5% | 2,423 | 2403.0 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-11 05:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-11 05:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-10 21:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-10 17:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-10 15:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Tomer](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Tomer) $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-10 12:42 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [kikones23](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kikones23) $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-09 08:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-08 22:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $2,197 3,380 gems 102.5x 2026-11-08 22:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=festive-fragfest) [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $6.43 9.89 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) [Silly Kangaroo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Silly%20Kangaroo) $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) [Angel Batista](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Angel%20Batista) $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $6.43 9.89 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $56.52 86.96 gems 2.64x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) Hidden $21.44 32.99 gems $6.43 9.89 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) [Angel Batista](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Angel%20Batista) $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) [Silly Kangaroo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Silly%20Kangaroo) $21.44 32.99 gems $0.58 0.89 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.44 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 46.0% mil spec 1.0% covert 2.0% red 1.0% #5e98d9 50.0% best hit $2,197 (102.5x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt