---
title: "Fever Case! case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fever Case! ($2.94) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 41 items with odds, observed 80.27% over 6,415 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Fever Case!](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Fever Case!

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=all)

Price · $2.94 · 4.53 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $2.65 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.27% · 6,415 openings, odds method

Variance · 58.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 222 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 761 openings · below min

7 days · 79.56% ±21.00 5,059 openings

30 days · 80.27% ±18.65 6,415 openings

since tracking started · 80.27% ±18.65 6,415 openings

55.0% 109.8% 164.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=24h) | 761 | 109.88% ±54.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=7d) | 5,059 | 79.56% ±21.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513) | 6,415 | 80.27% ±18.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fever-case-1796513?window=all) | 6,415 | 80.27% ±18.6 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,452 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $987 1,518 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $630 969 gems | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $571 879 gems | 2.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $476 733 gems | 1.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $387 595 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $367 564 gems | 1.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $311 479 gems | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $299 460 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $299 460 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $257 396 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $257 395 gems | 31.0% | 15 | 20.6 | 0.73× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $227 349 gems | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 325 gems | 0.8% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $203 313 gems | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $175 269 gems | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $169 260 gems | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $149 230 gems | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $141 217 gems | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $137 211 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $107 164 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $92.31 142 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $87.98 135 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $87.11 134 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $84.44 130 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $79.09 122 gems | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $22.98 35.35 gems | 9.3% | 63 | 69.0 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $21.98 33.81 gems | 8.9% | 60 | 69.0 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $14.49 22.29 gems | 5.9% | 77 | 69.0 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $12.90 19.85 gems | 1.6% | 18 | 20.6 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.94 2.98 gems | 2.3% | 193 | 206.5 | 0.93× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.83 2.82 gems | 2.2% | 189 | 206.5 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.69 2.6 gems | 2.0% | 214 | 206.5 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.69 2.6 gems | 2.0% | 192 | 206.5 | 0.93× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.62 2.49 gems | 2.0% | 217 | 206.5 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.44 0.68 gems | 1.9% | 750 | 735.5 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.32 0.49 gems | 1.4% | 758 | 735.5 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.26 0.4 gems | 1.1% | 735 | 735.5 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 1.0% | 727 | 735.5 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.9% | 735 | 735.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.9% | 743 | 736.2 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-factory-new) | 11.5% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.9% | 752 | 742.0 | 1.01× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Nasenbär Sympathisant 67](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nasenb%C3%A4r%20Sympathisant%2067) $2.94 4.53 gems $987 1,518 gems 335.1x 2026-11-07 02:41 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new) [XIII](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/XIII) $2.94 4.53 gems $571 879 gems 194.0x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $476 733 gems 161.7x 2026-11-03 21:18 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $387 595 gems 131.3x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $367 564 gems 124.6x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $257 396 gems 87.36x 2026-11-05 01:59 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $257 395 gems 87.14x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) [John Gaming](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/John%20Gaming) $2.94 4.53 gems $257 395 gems 87.14x 2026-11-08 23:14 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $257 395 gems 87.14x 2026-11-08 23:13 UTC

[AWP | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $257 395 gems 87.14x 2026-11-07 23:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=fever-case-1796513)

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-resupply-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) [Kölsche](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/K%C3%B6lsche) $2.94 4.53 gems $1.69 2.6 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

[SSG 08 | Memorial (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-factory-new) Hidden $2.94 4.53 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.94 | 89.99% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% gold 0.1% legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% rare 1.1% Ancient 0.3% Immortal 0.0% sunny 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% pink 1.1% Legendary 1.1% red 0.3% Mythical 9.6% restricted 3.2% uncommon 3.2% #4b69ff 11.4% blue 22.8% Rare 34.3% milspec 11.4% best hit $987 (335.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt