--- title: "Final Four case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Final Four ($21.82) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 97.92% over 3,376 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four rendered: 2026-11-12T00:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Final Four](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Final Four A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=all) Price · $21.82 · 33.57 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.64 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.92% · 3,376 openings, odds method Variance · 24.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.60% ±42.11 525 openings 7 days · 95.84% ±19.36 2,483 openings 30 days · 97.92% ±16.61 3,376 openings since tracking started · 97.92% ±16.61 3,376 openings 52.0% 94.8% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=24h) | 525 | 94.60% ±42.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=7d) | 2,483 | 95.84% ±19.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four) | 3,376 | 97.92% ±16.6 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/final-four?window=all) | 3,376 | 97.92% ±16.6 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,392 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,007 1,549 gems | 51.3% | 42 | 33.9 | 1.24× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $385 593 gems | 19.6% | 30 | 33.9 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $150 230 gems | 7.6% | 25 | 33.9 | 0.74× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $55.84 85.91 gems | 2.8% | 27 | 33.9 | 0.80× | | [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $18.26 28.09 gems | 11.2% | 451 | 407.0 | 1.11× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) | 12.0% | $5.33 8.2 gems | 3.3% | 392 | 407.0 | 0.96× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) | 12.0% | $4.73 7.28 gems | 2.9% | 422 | 407.0 | 1.04× | | [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.14 1.76 gems | 0.7% | 396 | 407.0 | 0.97× | | [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.4% | 376 | 407.0 | 0.92× | | [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.20 0.3 gems | 0.2% | 607 | 610.6 | 0.99× | | [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 624 | 610.6 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-10 13:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-10 07:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-09 07:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [( ͡⚆ ͜ʖ ͡⚆)](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%E2%9A%86%20%CD%9C%CA%96%20%CD%A1%E2%9A%86%29) $21.82 33.57 gems $1,007 1,549 gems 46.14x 2026-11-08 17:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=final-four) [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $18.26 28.09 gems 0.84x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $4.73 7.28 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $18.26 28.09 gems 0.84x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-factory-new) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Trecky) $21.82 33.57 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:46 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-factory-new) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $5.33 8.2 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC [Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $18.26 28.09 gems 0.84x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-field-tested) Hidden $21.82 33.57 gems $4.73 7.28 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC [Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) [Mort](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mort) $21.82 33.57 gems $1.14 1.76 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 22:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.82 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% covert 1.0% rare 12.0% Classified 12.0% violet 12.0% Mythical 12.0% #4b69ff 12.0% uncommon 18.0% #b0c3d9 18.0% best hit $1,007 (46.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt