--- title: "Flame Thrower case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Flame Thrower ($18.98) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 6 items with odds, observed 85.84% over 2,148 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Flame Thrower](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Flame Thrower A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=all) Price · $18.98 · 29.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $17.08 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.84% · 2,148 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.39% ±27.73 191 openings 7 days · 85.58% ±8.92 1,848 openings 30 days · 85.84% ±8.27 2,148 openings since tracking started · 85.84% ±8.27 2,148 openings 42.0% 70.5% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=24h) | 191 | 70.39% ±27.7 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=7d) | 1,848 | 85.58% ±8.92 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower) | 2,148 | 85.84% ±8.27 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/flame-thrower?window=all) | 2,148 | 85.84% ±8.27 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,230 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 10.0% | $123 189 gems | 71.9% | 211 | 223.0 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 10.0% | $39.44 60.68 gems | 23.1% | 228 | 223.0 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.95 16.84 gems | 3.2% | 117 | 111.5 | 1.05× | | [XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.07 1.64 gems | 0.3% | 123 | 111.5 | 1.10× | | [M249 \| Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.60 0.92 gems | 1.2% | 759 | 780.5 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.3% | 792 | 780.5 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=flame-thrower) [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $39.44 60.68 gems 2.08x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [M249 | Magma (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-magma-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.60 0.92 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-teclu-burner-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $1.07 1.64 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $123 189 gems 6.47x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC [Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-factory-new) Hidden $18.98 29.2 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $18.98 | 89.98% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 10.0% classified 10.0% covert 5.0% Mythical 5.0% mil spec 35.0% milspec 35.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt