--- title: "Float Check case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Float Check ($130.03) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 106.07% over 192 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Float Check](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Float Check A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=all) Price · $130.03 · 200 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $117.02 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.07% · 192 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 106.33% ±26.98 186 openings 30 days · 106.07% ±26.55 192 openings since tracking started · 106.07% ±26.55 192 openings 66.5% 124.0% 181.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=24h) | 42 | 124.02% ±56.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=7d) | 186 | 106.33% ±27.0 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check) | 192 | 106.07% ±26.6 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/float-check?window=all) | 192 | 106.07% ±26.6 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 192 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,247 1,918 gems | 21.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $931 1,432 gems | 23.9% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.74× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $475 731 gems | 20.3% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $240 370 gems | 10.3% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $110 169 gems | 9.4% | 23 | 19.2 | 1.20× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $63.93 98.36 gems | 5.5% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 10.0% | $55.24 84.99 gems | 4.7% | 13 | 19.2 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 10.0% | $22.35 34.38 gems | 1.9% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.09× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 15.0% | $14.01 21.56 gems | 1.8% | 31 | 28.8 | 1.08× | | [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.35 8.23 gems | 0.7% | 28 | 28.8 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.16 3.33 gems | 0.3% | 26 | 28.8 | 0.90× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [MTA\_HYPERION](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MTA_HYPERION) $130 200 gems $1,247 1,918 gems 9.59x 2026-11-10 18:37 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $1,247 1,918 gems 9.59x 2026-11-09 17:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $1,247 1,918 gems 9.59x 2026-11-05 12:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $1,247 1,918 gems 9.59x 2026-11-04 14:00 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) [Clever Beaver](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Clever%20Beaver) $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) [Clever Beaver](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Clever%20Beaver) $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-11 04:43 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-09 22:51 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-09 22:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=float-check) [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $14.01 21.56 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) Hidden $130 200 gems $2.16 3.33 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $130 200 gems $110 169 gems 0.85x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $14.01 21.56 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $22.35 34.38 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) [Clever Beaver](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Clever%20Beaver) $130 200 gems $931 1,432 gems 7.16x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) Hidden $130 200 gems $63.93 98.36 gems 0.49x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $55.24 84.99 gems 0.42x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $14.01 21.56 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) Hidden $130 200 gems $22.35 34.38 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 04:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $130 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.0% extraordinary 3.0% classified 15.0% rare 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% restricted 15.0% violet 15.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% best hit $1,247 (9.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt