--- title: "Forged case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Forged ($26.42) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 100.16% over 1,435 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Forged](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Forged A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=all) Price · $26.42 · 40.65 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $23.78 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.16% · 1,435 openings, odds method Variance · 16.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 152 openings · below min 7 days · 105.20% ±25.53 993 openings 30 days · 100.16% ±21.24 1,435 openings since tracking started · 100.16% ±21.24 1,435 openings -0.5% 65.5% 131.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=24h) | 152 | 59.50% ±65.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=7d) | 993 | 105.20% ±25.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged) | 1,435 | 100.16% ±21.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/forged?window=all) | 1,435 | 100.16% ±21.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,443 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,365 2,100 gems | 28.7% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $309 475 gems | 13.0% | 19 | 14.4 | 1.32× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $248 381 gems | 10.4% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $243 374 gems | 10.2% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $149 230 gems | 6.3% | 10 | 14.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $129 199 gems | 8.2% | 26 | 21.6 | 1.20× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $109 168 gems | 6.9% | 20 | 21.6 | 0.92× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $87.30 134 gems | 9.2% | 37 | 36.1 | 1.03× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.09 12.44 gems | 3.4% | 145 | 144.3 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 25.0% | $2.16 3.33 gems | 2.3% | 376 | 360.8 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.29 1.99 gems | 1.4% | 342 | 360.8 | 0.95× | | [Nova \| Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 430 | 432.9 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-09 22:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-07 01:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-07 00:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-06 01:24 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-05 22:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-05 18:37 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [KITCHEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/KITCHEN) $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-04 17:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Cookiez](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Cookiez) $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-03 18:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1,365 2,100 gems 51.66x 2026-11-03 18:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=forged) [Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $8.09 12.44 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $2.16 3.33 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $8.09 12.44 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $243 374 gems 9.20x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $26.42 40.65 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $8.09 12.44 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $1.29 1.99 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $2.16 3.33 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC [Nova | Caged Steel (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-caged-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.42 40.65 gems $0.07 0.11 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $26.42 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.5% covert 7.0% rare 1.0% covert knife 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% restricted 25.0% mil spec 25.0% industrial 30.0% best hit $1,365 (51.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt