--- title: "Fortune case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fortune ($532.84) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 101.11% over 508 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune rendered: 2026-11-11T13:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Fortune A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=all) Price · $532.84 · 820 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $479.55 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.11% · 508 openings, odds method Variance · 24.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 406 openings · below min 30 days · 101.11% ±42.87 508 openings since tracking started · 101.11% ±42.87 508 openings -0.5% 100.3% 201.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=24h) | 40 | 47.37% ±152.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=7d) | 406 | 77.97% ±48.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune) | 508 | 101.11% ±42.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/fortune?window=all) | 508 | 101.11% ±42.9 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 514 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $34.1K 52,490 gems | 21.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $26K 40,000 gems | 16.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 250 | $18.4K 28,238 gems | 15.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2,697 4,149 gems | 11.2% | 13 | 10.3 | 1.26× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,730 2,662 gems | 7.2% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,217 1,873 gems | 5.1% | 15 | 10.3 | 1.46× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $793 1,220 gems | 3.3% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 30.0% | $216 333 gems | 13.5% | 132 | 154.2 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 30.0% | $65.64 101 gems | 4.1% | 154 | 154.2 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 31.0% | $40.22 61.87 gems | 2.6% | 179 | 159.3 | 1.12× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $533 820 gems $34.1K 52,490 gems 64.03x 2026-11-07 14:45 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $533 820 gems $34.1K 52,490 gems 64.03x 2026-11-03 16:44 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $533 820 gems $26K 40,000 gems 48.80x 2026-11-07 00:47 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $533 820 gems $26K 40,000 gems 48.80x 2026-11-03 22:39 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) [Ola](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ola) $533 820 gems $18.4K 28,238 gems 34.45x 2026-11-06 07:58 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $533 820 gems $18.4K 28,238 gems 34.45x 2026-11-03 08:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $2,697 4,149 gems 5.06x 2026-11-10 09:54 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $2,697 4,149 gems 5.06x 2026-11-07 14:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $2,697 4,149 gems 5.06x 2026-11-07 12:52 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $2,697 4,149 gems 5.06x 2026-11-07 09:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=fortune) [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $216 333 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $216 333 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $65.64 101 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $65.64 101 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $65.64 101 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) [Ola](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ola) $533 820 gems $40.22 61.87 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $65.64 101 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $533 820 gems $65.64 101 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $40.22 61.87 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) Hidden $533 820 gems $40.22 61.87 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $533 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% remarkable 0.7% covert 95.0% gold 4.0% best hit $34.1K (64.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt