--- title: "Frozen Gem case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Frozen Gem ($36.67) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 80.22% over 1,773 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Frozen Gem](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Frozen Gem A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=all) Price · $36.67 · 56.41 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $33.00 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.22% · 1,773 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.64% ±38.87 168 openings 7 days · 81.49% ±14.06 1,285 openings 30 days · 80.22% ±11.97 1,773 openings since tracking started · 80.22% ±11.97 1,773 openings 67.0% 106.5% 146.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=24h) | 168 | 106.64% ±38.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=7d) | 1,285 | 81.49% ±14.1 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem) | 1,773 | 80.22% ±12.0 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/frozen-gem?window=all) | 1,773 | 80.22% ±12.0 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,785 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $1,373 2,112 gems | 10.4% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $722 1,110 gems | 5.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $385 593 gems | 17.5% | 24 | 26.8 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $220 338 gems | 10.0% | 30 | 26.8 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $141 217 gems | 6.4% | 35 | 26.8 | 1.31× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $83.85 129 gems | 12.7% | 104 | 89.3 | 1.17× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 10.0% | $49.61 76.33 gems | 15.0% | 181 | 178.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $26.69 41.06 gems | 8.1% | 151 | 178.5 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.98 21.51 gems | 4.2% | 182 | 178.5 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 30.0% | $8.00 12.3 gems | 7.3% | 505 | 535.5 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $3.17 4.87 gems | 2.9% | 571 | 535.5 | 1.07× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-factory-new) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $722 1,110 gems 19.68x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Frosty (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-factory-new) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $722 1,110 gems 19.68x 2026-11-03 17:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=frozen-gem) [Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $13.98 21.51 gems 0.38x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $3.17 4.87 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $26.69 41.06 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $3.17 4.87 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $8.00 12.3 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [helix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/helix) $36.67 56.41 gems $3.17 4.87 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $3.17 4.87 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $26.69 41.06 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $83.85 129 gems 2.29x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $36.67 56.41 gems $385 593 gems 10.51x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $36.67 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Knives 0.3% legendary 0.3% other 1.5% covert 1.5% classified 11.5% restricted 15.0% rare 10.0% pink 30.0% mil spec 30.0% best hit $722 (19.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt