--- title: "Ghosts case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ghosts ($3.87) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 7 items with odds, observed 88.76% over 2,440 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Ghosts](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Ghosts A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=all) Price · $3.87 · 5.95 gems Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $3.48 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.76% · 2,440 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.72% ±9.19 445 openings 7 days · 88.23% ±4.27 2,060 openings 30 days · 88.76% ±3.92 2,440 openings since tracking started · 88.76% ±3.92 2,440 openings 79.0% 88.8% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=24h) | 445 | 88.72% ±9.19 | −0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=7d) | 2,060 | 88.23% ±4.27 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts) | 2,440 | 88.76% ±3.92 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/ghosts?window=all) | 2,440 | 88.76% ±3.92 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,491 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.74 16.53 gems | 30.9% | 253 | 249.1 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.35 14.38 gems | 26.9% | 234 | 249.1 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.49 11.53 gems | 21.5% | 248 | 249.1 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.85 2.84 gems | 5.3% | 238 | 249.1 | 0.96× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.99 1.52 gems | 5.7% | 510 | 498.2 | 1.02× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.88 1.35 gems | 5.0% | 477 | 498.2 | 0.96× | | [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 4.7% | 531 | 498.2 | 1.07× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=ghosts) [SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.88 1.35 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [Tec-9 | Hades (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-factory-new) [Cookie! :) always has a loan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Cookie!%20%3A%29%20always%20has%20a%20loan!) $3.87 5.95 gems $10.74 16.53 gems 2.78x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [AWP | Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $7.49 11.53 gems 1.94x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.88 1.35 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) [Cookie! :) always has a loan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Cookie!%20%3A%29%20always%20has%20a%20loan!) $3.87 5.95 gems $1.85 2.84 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $3.87 5.95 gems $0.88 1.35 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) [:f](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%3Af) $3.87 5.95 gems $0.99 1.52 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.87 | 89.95% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Industrial Grade 10.0% classified 10.0% restricted 20.0% mil spec 40.0% violet 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt