--- title: "Glaze case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Glaze ($45.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 13 items with odds, observed 96.73% over 1,249 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Glaze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Glaze A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=all) Price · $45.31 · 69.7 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $40.77 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.73% · 1,249 openings, odds method Variance · 32.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 26 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88 openings · below min 7 days · 88.74% ±32.79 1,170 openings 30 days · 96.73% ±31.73 1,249 openings since tracking started · 96.73% ±31.73 1,249 openings 55.5% 218.8% 382.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=24h) | 88 | 262.02% ±119.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=7d) | 1,170 | 88.74% ±32.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze) | 1,249 | 96.73% ±31.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/glaze?window=all) | 1,249 | 96.73% ±31.7 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,261 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,614 10,176 gems | 8.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,074 9,345 gems | 7.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,795 4,300 gems | 6.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $2,202 3,388 gems | 6.8% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $2,178 3,351 gems | 6.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.27× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1,852 2,849 gems | 6.8% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $956 1,470 gems | 5.9% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $133 204 gems | 9.8% | 41 | 37.8 | 1.08× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $88.63 136 gems | 13.4% | 81 | 77.6 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $49.98 76.89 gems | 12.3% | 113 | 126.1 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 25.0% | $8.36 12.86 gems | 5.1% | 324 | 315.3 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 25.0% | $8.27 12.72 gems | 5.1% | 322 | 315.3 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 30.0% | $8.02 12.34 gems | 5.9% | 369 | 378.3 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $6,614 10,176 gems 146.0x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $6,074 9,345 gems 134.1x 2026-11-04 05:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $2,202 3,388 gems 48.61x 2026-11-10 00:46 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $2,178 3,351 gems 48.08x 2026-11-07 19:26 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $2,178 3,351 gems 48.08x 2026-11-07 19:24 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $1,852 2,849 gems 40.87x 2026-11-10 21:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $1,852 2,849 gems 40.87x 2026-11-07 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $1,852 2,849 gems 40.87x 2026-11-07 08:24 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $1,852 2,849 gems 40.87x 2026-11-05 04:27 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $956 1,470 gems 21.09x 2026-11-10 09:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=glaze) [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.36 12.86 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.36 12.86 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $49.98 76.89 gems 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $49.98 76.89 gems 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.36 12.86 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) [lukeNzi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/lukeNzi) $45.31 69.7 gems $8.02 12.34 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.02 12.34 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.02 12.34 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $88.63 136 gems 1.96x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $45.31 69.7 gems $8.36 12.86 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.31 | 89.99% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.5% gold 0.1% classified 80.1% restricted 0.3% best hit $6,614 (146.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt