--- title: "Gold Star case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gold Star ($25.01) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 88.69% over 2,699 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star rendered: 2026-11-11T17:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Gold Star](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Gold Star A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=all) Price · $25.01 · 38.47 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $22.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.69% · 2,699 openings, odds method Variance · 38.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 276 openings · below min 7 days · 94.72% ±25.50 2,259 openings 30 days · 88.69% ±23.33 2,699 openings since tracking started · 88.69% ±23.33 2,699 openings 46.5% 120.0% 193.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=24h) | 276 | 119.87% ±73.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=7d) | 2,259 | 94.72% ±25.5 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star) | 2,699 | 88.69% ±23.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gold-star?window=all) | 2,699 | 88.69% ±23.3 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,792 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,275 3,500 gems | 30.3% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,150 1,769 gems | 25.6% | 8 | 14.0 | 0.57× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $433 666 gems | 16.3% | 30 | 23.7 | 1.26× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $218 335 gems | 9.7% | 16 | 27.9 | 0.57× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $131 201 gems | 5.8% | 23 | 27.9 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $33.66 51.78 gems | 3.0% | 55 | 55.8 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $14.10 21.69 gems | 2.7% | 122 | 121.5 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.87 13.65 gems | 2.0% | 143 | 139.6 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $5.72 8.8 gems | 2.5% | 302 | 279.2 | 1.08× | | [PP-Bizon \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.98 3.05 gems | 0.9% | 266 | 279.2 | 0.95× | | [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.91 1.4 gems | 0.8% | 513 | 558.4 | 0.92× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 45.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 0.4% | 1,302 | 1256.4 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [☦︎Theta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%A6%EF%B8%8ETheta) $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-10 04:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [kikones23](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kikones23) $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-09 08:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-09 08:07 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-08 15:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-07 23:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) [ez nem Barni](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ez%20nem%20Barni) $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-07 20:03 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $2,275 3,500 gems 90.98x 2026-11-06 20:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=gold-star) [Nova | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.91 1.4 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $8.87 13.65 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) [kick.com/alynnushgambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Falynnushgambles) $25.01 38.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $5.72 8.8 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [Nova | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.91 1.4 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) Hidden $25.01 38.47 gems $0.18 0.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $25.01 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.8% epic 0.9% Covert 1.0% restricted 4.3% blue 5.0% industrial 10.0% #B0C3D9 30.0% mil spec 45.0% best hit $2,275 (90.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt