--- title: "Grayed Out case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Grayed Out ($2.05) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.42% over 9,189 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Grayed Out](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Grayed Out A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=all) Price · $2.05 · 3.15 gems Advertised RTP · 89.91% · EV $1.84 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.42% · 9,189 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.29% ±14.44 1,220 openings 7 days · 90.06% ±5.56 8,221 openings 30 days · 89.42% ±5.26 9,189 openings since tracking started · 89.42% ±5.26 9,189 openings 73.0% 88.3% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=24h) | 1,220 | 88.29% ±14.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=7d) | 8,221 | 90.06% ±5.56 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out) | 9,189 | 89.42% ±5.26 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/grayed-out?window=all) | 9,189 | 89.42% ±5.26 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,255 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $62.46 96.09 gems | 17.0% | 39 | 46.3 | 0.84× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $17.93 27.58 gems | 9.7% | 98 | 92.5 | 1.06× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $14.51 22.32 gems | 7.9% | 105 | 92.5 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.99 13.83 gems | 14.6% | 280 | 277.6 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $7.36 11.33 gems | 14.0% | 316 | 323.9 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.37 6.73 gems | 11.9% | 472 | 462.8 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.10 4.77 gems | 8.4% | 491 | 462.8 | 1.06× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.91 4.48 gems | 9.5% | 549 | 555.3 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 3.7% | 930 | 925.5 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 2.0% | 1,833 | 1851.0 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 1.0% | 1,855 | 1851.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.3% | 2,287 | 2313.8 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=grayed-out) [M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $8.99 13.83 gems 4.39x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $3.10 4.77 gems 1.51x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [jakeo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jakeo) $2.05 3.15 gems $14.51 22.32 gems 7.09x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $62.46 96.09 gems 30.50x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $2.05 3.15 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) [jakeo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jakeo) $2.05 3.15 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.05 | 89.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 4.0% classified 1.0% mil spec 21.0% industrial 28.0% #4b69ff 5.0% #8847ff 6.0% Rare 10.0% Uncommon 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.91 on average: an expected loss of $10.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt