--- title: "Greasy case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Greasy ($28.72) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 88.89% over 494 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Greasy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Greasy A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=all) Price · $28.72 · 44.18 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.85 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.89% · 494 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 94.94% ±25.97 423 openings 30 days · 88.89% ±24.03 494 openings since tracking started · 88.89% ±24.03 494 openings -0.5% 75.0% 150.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=24h) | 22 | 35.88% ±113.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=7d) | 423 | 94.94% ±26.0 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy) | 494 | 88.89% ±24.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/greasy?window=all) | 494 | 88.89% ±24.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 500 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $589 906 gems | 22.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $396 610 gems | 19.2% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.44× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $189 291 gems | 14.6% | 5 | 10.0 | 0.50× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $146 225 gems | 11.3% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $53.92 82.96 gems | 10.4% | 21 | 25.0 | 0.84× | | [Sticker \| Renegades (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-renegades-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 13 | $25.71 39.56 gems | 7.5% | 35 | 37.5 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $11.78 18.12 gems | 4.6% | 58 | 50.0 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| GODSENT (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-holo-stockholm-2021) | 10.0% | $8.66 13.32 gems | 3.3% | 36 | 50.0 | 0.72× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 30.0% | $2.87 4.41 gems | 3.3% | 165 | 150.0 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 31.3% | $2.47 3.8 gems | 3.0% | 157 | 156.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $589 906 gems 20.50x 2026-11-10 01:20 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $589 906 gems 20.50x 2026-11-09 15:10 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $589 906 gems 20.50x 2026-11-07 02:19 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Lex](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Lex) $28.72 44.18 gems $589 906 gems 20.50x 2026-11-06 21:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $589 906 gems 20.50x 2026-11-05 12:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=greasy) [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $11.78 18.12 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) [Zed\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Zed_) $28.72 44.18 gems $11.78 18.12 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $2.47 3.8 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $53.92 82.96 gems 1.88x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $28.72 44.18 gems $53.92 82.96 gems 1.88x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $11.78 18.12 gems 0.41x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) Hidden $28.72 44.18 gems $2.87 4.41 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $28.72 44.18 gems $2.87 4.41 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $28.72 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.5% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 7.5% red 10.0% remarkable 10.0% #8847ff 30.0% best hit $589 (20.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt