--- title: "Gumball case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gumball ($35.39) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 71.20% over 2,973 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball rendered: 2026-11-11T16:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Gumball](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Gumball A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=all) Price · $35.39 · 54.44 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.85 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.20% · 2,973 openings, odds method Variance · 85.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 313 openings · below min 7 days · 64.74% ±36.16 2,504 openings 30 days · 71.20% ±33.18 2,973 openings since tracking started · 71.20% ±33.18 2,973 openings -0.5% 67.3% 135.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=24h) | 313 | 32.01% ±102.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=7d) | 2,504 | 64.74% ±36.2 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball) | 2,973 | 71.20% ±33.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/gumball?window=all) | 2,973 | 71.20% ±33.2 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,983 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,176 14,117 gems | 28.8% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 476 | $3,126 4,809 gems | 20.6% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $558 858 gems | 12.1% | 19 | 20.6 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $142 219 gems | 8.9% | 62 | 59.7 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $89.05 137 gems | 5.6% | 71 | 59.7 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $62.80 96.62 gems | 9.9% | 142 | 149.2 | 0.95× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $36.10 55.54 gems | 5.7% | 130 | 149.2 | 0.87× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.81 21.24 gems | 2.2% | 136 | 149.2 | 0.91× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.78 11.97 gems | 2.4% | 292 | 298.3 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.82 5.87 gems | 2.4% | 638 | 596.6 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.64 2.52 gems | 1.0% | 610 | 596.6 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 0.4% | 878 | 894.9 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $9,176 14,117 gems 259.3x 2026-11-05 16:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $9,176 14,117 gems 259.3x 2026-11-04 05:17 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $3,126 4,809 gems 88.34x 2026-11-09 04:02 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $3,126 4,809 gems 88.34x 2026-11-07 17:09 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $3,126 4,809 gems 88.34x 2026-11-07 08:52 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $558 858 gems 15.76x 2026-11-09 02:18 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $558 858 gems 15.76x 2026-11-08 17:14 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $558 858 gems 15.76x 2026-11-07 00:50 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $558 858 gems 15.76x 2026-11-06 22:57 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $558 858 gems 15.76x 2026-11-06 20:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=gumball) [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $1.64 2.52 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $3.82 5.87 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $3.82 5.87 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $62.80 96.62 gems 1.77x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $35.39 54.44 gems $1.64 2.52 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) [Ceontea](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ceontea) $35.39 54.44 gems $3.82 5.87 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) Hidden $35.39 54.44 gems $1.64 2.52 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.39 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.2% legendary 0.7% rare 4.0% restricted 75.0% classified 20.0% best hit $9,176 (259.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt