--- title: "Hail Mary case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hail Mary ($29.80) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 78.52% over 3,463 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hail Mary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hail Mary A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=all) Price · $29.80 · 45.85 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.82 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.52% · 3,463 openings, odds method Variance · 100.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 313 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 487 openings · below min 7 days · 75.45% ±35.44 3,082 openings 30 days · 78.52% ±33.43 3,463 openings since tracking started · 78.52% ±33.43 3,463 openings -0.5% 67.3% 135.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=24h) | 487 | 45.25% ±89.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=7d) | 3,082 | 75.45% ±35.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary) | 3,463 | 78.52% ±33.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hail-mary?window=all) | 3,463 | 78.52% ±33.4 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,487 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,240 9,600 gems | 11.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $5,694 8,760 gems | 14.9% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,583 5,513 gems | 13.4% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,740 4,216 gems | 10.2% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,570 3,954 gems | 9.6% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.15× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $2,450 3,769 gems | 13.7% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.76× | | [Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ninjas-in-pyjamas-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 556 | $1,993 3,066 gems | 13.4% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,405 2,162 gems | 13.1% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× | | [Sticker \| Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) | 99.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.2% | 3,457 | 3452.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $6,240 9,600 gems 209.4x 2026-11-05 17:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $5,694 8,760 gems 191.1x 2026-11-07 22:16 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-10 09:01 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [zFaem](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/zFaem) $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-10 08:59 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-09 21:17 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Mikey](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mikey) $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-05 06:26 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $3,583 5,513 gems 120.2x 2026-11-04 13:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $2,740 4,216 gems 91.95x 2026-11-08 08:08 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $2,740 4,216 gems 91.95x 2026-11-06 20:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hail-mary) [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Sticker | Dragon Tale sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-tale) Hidden $29.80 45.85 gems $0.05 0.07 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.80 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% contraband 0.1% covert 0.5% classified 0.1% remarkable 0.2% high 99.0% best hit $6,240 (209.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt