--- title: "Hard Scoped case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hard Scoped ($24.94) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 85.50% over 1,374 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hard Scoped](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hard Scoped A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=all) Price · $24.94 · 38.37 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $22.45 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.50% · 1,374 openings, odds method Variance · 31.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 111 openings · below min 7 days · 74.67% ±31.29 1,223 openings 30 days · 85.50% ±29.52 1,374 openings since tracking started · 85.50% ±29.52 1,374 openings -0.5% 74.0% 148.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=24h) | 111 | 43.75% ±103.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=7d) | 1,223 | 74.67% ±31.3 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped) | 1,374 | 85.50% ±29.5 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hard-scoped?window=all) | 1,374 | 85.50% ±29.5 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,540 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,871 4,417 gems | 25.6% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $813 1,250 gems | 10.9% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $294 452 gems | 6.6% | 5 | 7.7 | 0.65× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $188 289 gems | 8.4% | 14 | 15.4 | 0.91× | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $135 208 gems | 12.0% | 33 | 30.8 | 1.07× | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $67.31 104 gems | 9.0% | 43 | 46.2 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $46.60 71.69 gems | 6.2% | 38 | 46.2 | 0.82× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $31.20 48 gems | 5.6% | 54 | 61.6 | 0.88× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $19.45 29.92 gems | 5.2% | 85 | 92.4 | 0.92× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.65 17.92 gems | 5.2% | 163 | 154.0 | 1.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-factory-new) | 20.0% | $5.55 8.54 gems | 4.9% | 340 | 308.0 | 1.10× | | [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.22 0.34 gems | 0.5% | 757 | 770.0 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $2,871 4,417 gems 115.1x 2026-11-09 16:51 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $2,871 4,417 gems 115.1x 2026-11-05 22:41 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $2,871 4,417 gems 115.1x 2026-11-03 08:40 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $2,871 4,417 gems 115.1x 2026-11-02 23:58 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $813 1,250 gems 32.58x 2026-11-09 14:07 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $813 1,250 gems 32.58x 2026-11-03 23:32 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) [HolingBing](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HolingBing) $24.94 38.37 gems $813 1,250 gems 32.58x 2026-11-03 20:48 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $813 1,250 gems 32.58x 2026-11-02 23:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hard-scoped) [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $31.20 48 gems 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [AUG | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $31.20 48 gems 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [G3SG1 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $5.55 8.54 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) [helix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/helix) $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [G3SG1 | Contractor (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-contractor-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $5.55 8.54 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) Hidden $24.94 38.37 gems $0.22 0.34 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $24.94 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.5% #d32ee6 6.5% classified 4.0% restricted 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% mil spec 4.0% Consumer Grade 20.0% Rare 50.0% best hit $2,871 (115.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt