--- title: "Hardstuck Bronze case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hardstuck Bronze ($13.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 88.77% over 1,535 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Hardstuck Bronze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Hardstuck Bronze A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=all) Price · $13.59 · 20.91 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.23 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.77% · 1,535 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.13% ±13.62 364 openings 7 days · 88.24% ±6.99 1,381 openings 30 days · 88.77% ±6.63 1,535 openings since tracking started · 88.77% ±6.63 1,535 openings 79.0% 93.3% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=24h) | 364 | 93.13% ±13.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=7d) | 1,381 | 88.24% ±6.99 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze) | 1,535 | 88.77% ±6.63 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/hardstuck-bronze?window=all) | 1,535 | 88.77% ±6.63 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,570 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $72.72 112 gems | 29.7% | 77 | 78.5 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $51.80 79.69 gems | 21.2% | 73 | 78.5 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $24.00 36.92 gems | 9.8% | 79 | 78.5 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $17.95 27.62 gems | 7.3% | 92 | 78.5 | 1.17× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.01 20.02 gems | 10.6% | 159 | 157.0 | 1.01× | | [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.48 13.05 gems | 6.9% | 154 | 157.0 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $5.39 8.29 gems | 6.6% | 216 | 235.5 | 0.92× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $3.61 5.55 gems | 4.4% | 257 | 235.5 | 1.09× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.96 3.02 gems | 2.4% | 243 | 235.5 | 1.03× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 0.9% | 220 | 235.5 | 0.93× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=hardstuck-bronze) [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $3.61 5.55 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $3.61 5.55 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC [XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $8.48 13.05 gems 0.62x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) [Aggressive Moose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aggressive%20Moose) $13.59 20.91 gems $3.61 5.55 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $0.77 1.18 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $5.39 8.29 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-well-worn) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $1.96 3.02 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) [Aggressive Moose](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Aggressive%20Moose) $13.59 20.91 gems $3.61 5.55 gems 0.27x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $13.01 20.02 gems 0.96x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $13.59 20.91 gems $0.77 1.18 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.59 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% mil spec 5.0% pink 10.0% classified 35.0% industrial 15.0% Uncommon 15.0% violet 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt