--- title: "Heat Check case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heat Check ($12.03) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 103.59% over 2,826 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check rendered: 2026-11-11T17:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Heat Check](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Heat Check A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=all) Price · $12.03 · 18.5 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $10.82 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.59% · 2,826 openings, odds method Variance · 13.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.97% ±33.80 451 openings 7 days · 103.59% ±14.71 2,381 openings 30 days · 103.59% ±13.50 2,826 openings since tracking started · 103.59% ±13.50 2,826 openings 65.5% 100.0% 134.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.09% – 117.09%, 2,826 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=24h) | 451 | 99.97% ±33.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=7d) | 2,381 | 103.59% ±14.7 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check) | 2,826 | 103.59% ±13.5 | +2.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heat-check?window=all) | 2,826 | 103.59% ±13.5 | +2.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,850 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $809 1,245 gems | 15.0% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $464 714 gems | 8.6% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.58× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $255 392 gems | 4.7% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $163 250 gems | 3.0% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $92.30 142 gems | 1.7% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $62.92 96.8 gems | 1.2% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.87 41.34 gems | 24.8% | 324 | 285.0 | 1.14× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 10.0% | $13.85 21.31 gems | 12.8% | 279 | 285.0 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $10.54 16.21 gems | 9.7% | 286 | 285.0 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 68.8% | $2.91 4.48 gems | 18.5% | 1,919 | 1960.8 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) [ST](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ST) $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-09 05:01 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-07 03:18 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-06 07:48 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-04 20:15 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-04 06:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $809 1,245 gems 67.30x 2026-11-04 04:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=heat-check) [MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $26.87 41.34 gems 2.23x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $2.91 4.48 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $2.91 4.48 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $10.54 16.21 gems 0.88x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $2.91 4.48 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) [VYCK4](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VYCK4) $12.03 18.5 gems $2.91 4.48 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $13.85 21.31 gems 1.15x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $26.87 41.34 gems 2.23x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $13.85 21.31 gems 1.15x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $12.03 18.5 gems $10.54 16.21 gems 0.88x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.03 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.2% restricted 79.0% classified 0.4% covert 0.2% mil spec 20.2% best hit $809 (67.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt