--- title: "Heavy Crown case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heavy Crown ($113.40) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 129.52% over 3,601 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Heavy Crown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Heavy Crown A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=all) Price · $113.40 · 174 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $102.06 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 129.52% · 3,601 openings, odds method Variance · 107.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 288 openings · below min 7 days · 125.21% ±35.49 3,266 openings 30 days · 129.52% ±33.80 3,601 openings since tracking started · 129.52% ±33.80 3,601 openings -0.5% 118.8% 238.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.72% – 163.31%, 3,601 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=24h) | 288 | 117.83% ±119.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=7d) | 3,266 | 125.21% ±35.5 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown) | 3,601 | 129.52% ±33.8 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-crown?window=all) | 3,601 | 129.52% ±33.8 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,658 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500 | $26K 40,000 gems | 51.0% | 13 | 7.3 | 1.78× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $2,112 3,249 gems | 6.2% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.37× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,723 2,650 gems | 8.4% | 18 | 18.3 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| King on the Field sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-king-on-the-field) | 1 in 100 | $634 975 gems | 6.2% | 40 | 36.6 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $360 554 gems | 3.5% | 41 | 36.6 | 1.12× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $199 307 gems | 3.9% | 65 | 73.2 | 0.89× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $131 202 gems | 2.6% | 61 | 73.2 | 0.83× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $74.50 115 gems | 2.2% | 108 | 109.7 | 0.98× | | [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $67.41 104 gems | 3.3% | 181 | 182.9 | 0.99× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $48.36 74.4 gems | 4.7% | 371 | 365.8 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $19.51 30.01 gems | 4.8% | 954 | 914.5 | 1.04× | | [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 50.0% | $6.49 9.98 gems | 3.2% | 1,791 | 1829.0 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-11 00:23 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-10 15:11 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-09 02:46 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-09 02:46 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-07 01:39 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-07 01:18 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-06 21:50 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-05 17:26 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) [Gropus The Grand](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gropus%20The%20Grand) $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-05 17:05 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $113 174 gems $26K 40,000 gems 229.3x 2026-11-05 16:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=heavy-crown) [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $113 174 gems $360 554 gems 3.18x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-battle-scarred) Hidden $113 174 gems $19.51 30.01 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $113 174 gems $6.49 9.98 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-battle-scarred) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $113 174 gems $19.51 30.01 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) Hidden $113 174 gems $48.36 74.4 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $113 174 gems $6.49 9.98 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $113 174 gems $6.49 9.98 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $113 174 gems $6.49 9.98 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $113 174 gems $6.49 9.98 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-battle-scarred) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $113 174 gems $19.51 30.01 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $113 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.2% covert 4.3% classified 0.5% high 1.0% rare 1.0% Covert 3.0% #4b69ff 5.0% extraordinary 10.0% industrial 75.0% best hit $26K (229.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt