--- title: "Heavy Hits case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Heavy Hits ($32.06) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 81.13% over 1,552 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits rendered: 2026-11-11T20:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Heavy Hits](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Heavy Hits A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=all) Price · $32.06 · 49.32 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $28.85 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.13% · 1,552 openings, odds method Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.58% ±39.63 321 openings 7 days · 82.54% ±18.70 1,442 openings 30 days · 81.13% ±18.02 1,552 openings since tracking started · 81.13% ±18.02 1,552 openings 46.5% 86.8% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=24h) | 321 | 86.58% ±39.6 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=7d) | 1,442 | 82.54% ±18.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits) | 1,552 | 81.13% ±18.0 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/heavy-hits?window=all) | 1,552 | 81.13% ±18.0 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,576 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,728 2,659 gems | 12.0% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,300 2,000 gems | 13.5% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.63× | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $346 533 gems | 12.0% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.02× | | [Negev \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $267 410 gems | 9.2% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.02× | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $182 280 gems | 12.6% | 19 | 31.5 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $120 185 gems | 12.5% | 54 | 47.3 | 1.14× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $79.34 122 gems | 8.3% | 52 | 47.3 | 1.10× | | [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $22.70 34.93 gems | 3.9% | 88 | 78.8 | 1.12× | | [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.26 32.71 gems | 3.7% | 90 | 78.8 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 10.0% | $16.24 24.99 gems | 5.6% | 149 | 157.6 | 0.95× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $4.45 6.85 gems | 3.9% | 385 | 394.0 | 0.98× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 44.5% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 2.8% | 702 | 701.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1,728 2,659 gems 53.91x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1,728 2,659 gems 53.91x 2026-11-09 22:31 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 40.55x 2026-11-07 12:13 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 40.55x 2026-11-05 18:26 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 40.55x 2026-11-05 16:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=heavy-hits) [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-orange-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $120 185 gems 3.74x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $79.34 122 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $4.45 6.85 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $4.45 6.85 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC [M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $4.45 6.85 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $79.34 122 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $22.70 34.93 gems 0.71x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $32.06 49.32 gems $79.34 122 gems 2.47x 2026-11-11 19:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $32.06 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 11.2% restricted 0.3% #4b69ff 1.0% mil spec 5.0% Heavy 3.0% #eb4b4b 5.0% Rare 5.0% industrial 25.0% violet 44.5% best hit $1,728 (53.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt