---
title: "Holiday Heist case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Holiday Heist ($44.88) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 99.09% over 654 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Holiday Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Holiday Heist

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=all)

Price · $44.88 · 69.05 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $40.39 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.09% · 654 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 158 openings · below min

7 days · 90.07% ±26.75 531 openings

30 days · 99.09% ±24.10 654 openings

since tracking started · 99.09% ±24.10 654 openings

60.0% 109.5% 159.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=24h) | 158 | 109.52% ±49.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=7d) | 531 | 90.07% ±26.7 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist) | 654 | 99.09% ±24.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/holiday-heist?window=all) | 654 | 99.09% ±24.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 675 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,214 1,867 gems | 30.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $465 716 gems | 23.0% | 15 | 13.5 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $256 394 gems | 12.7% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 50 | $167 257 gems | 8.3% | 15 | 13.5 | 1.11× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $107 165 gems | 8.0% | 20 | 20.3 | 0.99× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $64.50 99.23 gems | 8.0% | 30 | 33.8 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.69 44.14 gems | 3.6% | 41 | 33.8 | 1.21× |
| [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $19.57 30.1 gems | 2.4% | 33 | 33.8 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.29 12.76 gems | 2.1% | 72 | 67.5 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.96 7.63 gems | 1.2% | 74 | 67.5 | 1.10× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.36 2.09 gems | 0.7% | 121 | 135.0 | 0.90× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.1% | 230 | 236.3 | 0.97× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-11 10:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [✪ R1PPER5.9](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%9C%AA%20R1PPER5.9) $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-10 13:48 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-09 12:19 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-06 16:18 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-04 16:57 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1,214 1,867 gems 27.04x 2026-11-04 11:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=holiday-heist)

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $4.96 7.63 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[P2000 | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $1.36 2.09 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $107 165 gems 2.39x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $28.69 44.14 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $4.96 7.63 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $465 716 gems 10.37x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-minimal-wear) Hidden $44.88 69.05 gems $8.29 12.76 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

[P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [Pejchyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pejchyn) $44.88 69.05 gems $4.96 7.63 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $44.88 | 89.99% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.0% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 2.0% classified 15.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Industrial Grade 10.0% mil spec 20.0% Rare 35.0% best hit $1,214 (27.04x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt